全球降水强度变化趋势及其对区域水文过程的影响分析
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1.南京信息工程大学;2.丹阳市气象局

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P333

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Analysis of Global Precipitation Intensity Trends and Its Impact on Regional Hydrological Processes
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1.School of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;2.Danyang Meteorological Bureau

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    摘要:

    全球气候变化通过改变降水特征对水文过程产生影响。然而,现有研究多集中于降水总量的变化对水文过程的影响,关于降水强度的变化及其影响分析较少。鉴于此,利用CRU全球1901—2021年降水量和降水频率数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验方法,综合分析全球年平均日降水强度的时空变化特征;进而选用具有物理意义的Budyko水量平衡框架,构建降水强度变化对径流系数影响的量化分析方法,并以珠江、嫩江和玛纳斯河流域为典型案例加以验证。结果表明:(1)1901—2021年全球年平均日降水强度呈显著上升趋势(Z=2.359,通过95%置信区间检验);全球55.67%的区域呈上升趋势,31.37%的区域呈下降趋势。(2)在IPCC26个气候分区中,13个分区呈上升趋势(其中11个显著),13个分区呈下降趋势(其中5个显著),区域差异明显。(3)全球年平均日降水强度的突变年份主要集中于20世纪初(1912年前后)和21世纪初(2009—2015年)。(4)3个典型流域案例分析表明,平均日降水强度在湿润区(珠江)与干旱区(玛纳斯河)对径流系数变化的贡献较大,在半湿润—半干旱过渡区(嫩江)介于干旱指数与下垫面影响之间。这些案例分析表明平均日降水强度是径流变化的重要影响因子,对于水文过程的影响不可忽略。

    Abstract:

    Global climate change affects hydrological processes by altering precipitation characteristics. However, existing studies have predominantly focused on the impacts of changes in total precipitation on hydrological processes, while analyses concerning changes in precipitation intensity and their effects remain relatively limited. To address this gap, this study utilizes the CRU global precipitation amount and frequency datasets from 1901 to 2021, and employs the Mann-Kendall trend test and abrupt change detection method to comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of global annual mean daily precipitation intensity. Furthermore, a physically-based Budyko water balance framework is adopted to develop a quantitative method for assessing the impact of precipitation intensity changes on the runoff coefficient, with the Pearl River, Nenjiang River, and Manas River basins serving as typical case studies for validation. The results indicate that: global annual mean daily precipitation intensity exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1901–2021; pronounced regional differences were observed among the 26 IPCC climate reference regions, with 13 regions showing increasing trends and 13 showing decreasing trends; abrupt change years of global annual mean daily precipitation intensity were primarily concentrated around the early 20th century (circa 1912) and the early 21st century (2009–2015); case studies of three typical basins demonstrated that the contribution of mean daily precipitation intensity to variations in the runoff coefficient was substantial in both the humid region (Pearl River) and the arid region (Manas River), while in the semi-humid to semi-arid transition zone (Nenjiang River), its contribution was intermediate between those of the aridity index and underlying surface conditions. These case studies indicate that mean daily precipitation intensity is a critical factor influencing runoff variations, and its impact on hydrological processes should not be neglected.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-04
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-15
  • 录用日期:2026-05-18
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