基于Copula函数的前山河流域雨潮联合遭遇风险演变
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1.北京师范大学自然科学高等研究院水科学研究中心;2.北京师范大学珠海校区粤港水安全保障联合实验室;3.华测检测认证集团股份有限公司;4.珠海市规划设计研究院;5.广东省滨海地区防灾减灾工程技术中心

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P333;TV122

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广东省基础与应用基础研究(2023A1515010972;2021A1515110410);粤港水安全保障联合实验室(2020B1212030005)


Evolution of Rainfall-Tide Joint Risk Probability in the Qianshan River Basin Based on Copula Function
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1.Center for Water Research, Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal University;2.Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security, Beijing Normal University;3.Centre Testing International Group Co., Ltd;4.Center of Coastal Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering Technology at Guangdong Province

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    摘要:

    在全球气候变化和快速城镇化的双重背景下,暴雨和高潮位遭遇的复合型洪潮灾害成为沿海城市面临的主要风险之一。为探究沿海地区降雨特征并定量刻画雨潮联合遭遇风险对沿海城市防洪排涝的影响,采用前山河流域1960—2018年年最大1 d降雨量及其对应潮位资料,使用Mann-Kendall检验法和滑动T检验法确定降雨和潮位突变年份,并基于优选的边缘分布和Copula函数,分别构建突变点前后降雨-潮位的联合分布模型,分析不同时段前山河流域暴雨-潮位联合遭遇的同现风险概率、防涝风险概率及其重现期。结果表明:(1)2000年为前山河流域潮位序列突变点;(2)与1960—2000年相比,2001—2018年同现风险概率有所下降,但防涝风险概率增加,这可能与海平面上升和人类活动引起的潮位上升有关;(3)2001—2018年降雨和高潮位遭遇事件的重现期相较于1960—2000年有所缩短,表明极端降雨与高潮位遭遇事件的发生频率增加,极端事件的风险加剧。因此,提高潮位设计标准可有效降低防涝风险。

    Abstract:

    Under the dual pressures of global climate change and rapid urbanization, compound flood disasters resulting from the concurrent occurrence of heavy rainfall and high tide levels have become a significant risk for coastal cities. To investigate the precipitation characteristics in coastal areas and quantitatively evaluate the impact of joint rainfall-tide encounter risks on flood prevention and drainage systems in coastal cities, this study analyzed annual maximum 1-day rainfall and corresponding tide level data from 1960 to 2018 in the Qianshan River basin. The Mann-Kendall test and the moving T-test were applied to identify abrupt change points in rainfall and tide level series. Based on the optimal marginal distributions and Copula functions, joint distribution models of rainfall and tide levels were constructed for the periods before and after the identified change points. The co-occurrence risk probabilities, flood prevention risk probabilities, and their return periods were analyzed for different time periods.The results indicate that: (1) The year 2000 marks an abrupt change point in the tide level series of the Qianshan River basin; (2) Compared to the period from 1960–2000, the co-occurrence risk probabilities during 2001–2018 decreased, while the flood prevention risk probabilities increased. This may be attributed to the rise in tide levels caused by sea level rise and human activities. (3) The return periods of rainfall and high tide level encounters shortened during the second period, indicating an increased frequency of extreme rainfall-tide events and heightened risks of extreme events. Therefore, raising the design standards for tide levels can effectively mitigate flood prevention risks.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-02
  • 录用日期:2025-07-07
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