基于分形理论和圆形分布法的黄土丘陵区汛期洪水分期比较
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陕西省水利电力勘测设计研究院(集团)有限公司

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TV122.3;P33

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Comparison of the Flood Season Staging Based on the Fractal Theory and the Circular Distribution in Loess Hilly Region
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Shaanxi Provincal Institute of Water Resources and Electric Power Investigation and Design CO.,Ltd

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    摘要:

    准确划分汛期洪水分期有利于缓解水库防洪和兴利的矛盾,实现洪水资源化利用。洪水季节性分期方法受制于区域水文情势差异,各方案均具有特性优势与适用局限性。本研究以陕西省延河流域安塞水文站为例,分别采用数理统计法、圆形分布法和分形理论法对流域汛期洪水进行分期计算和结果比较,确定黄土丘陵区流域汛期洪水分期的合理方案。结果表明,综合考虑延河流域的暴雨洪水变化规律、气象和下垫面等因素,延河安塞站以上流域的前汛期为6月1日—7月15日,主汛期为7月16日—8月31日,后汛期为9月1日—10月31日。相比而言,数理统计法汛期分期划分成果精度粗略;圆形分布法计算分析成果较好地表述汛期洪水季节性特征,可作为汛期洪水分期的基础;基于分形理论的汛期洪水分期成果在研究区更加合理可靠,可作为洪水分期和水库调度决策的科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Accurate division of flood stages during the flood season helps alleviate the contradiction between flood control and beneficial use of reservoirs, enabling the utilization of flood resources. The seasonal staging methods for floods are constrained by regional hydrological differences, and each method has its unique advantages and applicable limitations. Taking the Ansai Hydrological Station in the Yanhe River Basin of Shaanxi Province as an example, this study uses mathematical statistics, circular distribution method, and fractal theory to conduct staging calculations and compare the results of flood staging during the flood season in the basin, determining a reasonable scheme for flood staging during the flood season in the loess hilly region. The results show that, considering the variation patterns of rainstorm and flood in the Yanhe River Basin, meteorological conditions, underlying surface, and other factors, the pre-flood season above the Ansai Station of the Yanhe River is from June 1st to July 15th, the main flood season is from July 16th to August 31st, and the post-flood season is from September 1st to October 31st. In comparison, the results of flood staging division using the mathematical statistics method are relatively rough in accuracy; the results of the circular distribution method can better represent the seasonal characteristics of floods during the flood season and can serve as the basis for flood staging; the results of flood staging based on fractal theory are more reasonable and reliable in the study area and can be used as a scientific basis for flood staging and reservoir operation decision-making.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-20
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-24
  • 录用日期:2025-04-27
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