离散求和法在多分区洪水地区组成中的应用研究
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中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司

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TV122+.3;P333

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Research on the Application of Discrete Summation Method in the Composition of Multi-division Flood Region
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POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited

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    摘要:

    洪水地区组成分析是受梯级水库群调度影响的下游断面设计洪水计算的基础。离散求和法是我国《水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范》(SL44-2006)推荐的洪水地区组成计算方法之一。在使用该方法之前需要对各分区变量进行独立性检验和转换,但规范未明确给出三个及以上分区情况下的独立性转换方法,在分析多分区洪水地区组成时只能逐级进行离散求和。基于协方差矩阵LDLT分解的多变量独立变换方法,提出了基于LDLT分解的独立变换离散求和法,可直接对多个组合变量进行独立变换后离散求和。以雅砻江流域梯级水库下游断面设计洪水计算为例,分析比较逐级组合的离散求和法、基于Copula函数改进的离散求和法和基于LDLT分解的独立变换离散求和法所得的设计洪水成果。结果表明,三种方法计算的受上游水库调蓄影响的下游断面设计洪量削减率基本接近,基于LDLT分解的独立变换离散求和法可为多分区情况下梯级水库下游断面设计洪水计算提供比选方案。

    Abstract:

    The analysis of flood region composition is the basis for the design flood estimation of downstream cross sections affected by the regulation of the cascade reservoirs. One of the methods recommended by "Regulation for calculating design flood of water resources and hydropower projects" for calculating the flood region composition is the discrete summation method. Before using this method, it is necessary to perform independent test and transformation on the variables in each division. However, the regulation does not clearly provide methods for the independent transformation in cases where there are three or more divisions. When analyzing flood region with multiple divisions, the only option is to perform discrete summation in a hierarchical manner. Based on the independent transformation method by LDLT decomposition of the covariance matrix, this paper proposed the independent transformation discrete summation method based on LDLT decomposition, which can directly perform independent transformation on multiple composition variables and then perform discrete summation. As a case study, this paper analyzed and compared the design flood results obtained from the hierarchical discrete summation method, the improved discrete summation method based on Copula functions, and the independent transformation discrete summation method based on LDLT decomposition at the downstream cross section of cascade reservoirs in the Yalong River Basin. The results show that the design flood volume reduction rates calculated by the three methods are basically close to each other. The independent transformation discrete summation method based on LDLT decomposition proposed can provide comparative option for the design flood calculation of downstream cross sections affected by cascade reservoirs.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-25
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-27
  • 录用日期:2024-12-30
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