粤西沿海潮水位变化趋势及设计潮位分析研究
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作者单位:

1.广东省防汛保障与农村水利中心;2.水利部信息中心;3.广东水利电力职业技术学院

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中图分类号:

P33;TV212.53

基金项目:

广东省水利科技创新项目 防洪防涝防风暴潮精准预警预报系统融合技术及产品研究(2022-01)


Study on the Trends of Tidal Level Changes and Design Tide Level Analysis in the Coastal Areas of Western Guangdong
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Affiliation:

1.Information Center,Ministry of Water Resources;2.Guangdong Polytechnic of Water Resources and Electric Engineering, Guangzhou

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    摘要:

    依据粤西沿海重点潮位站南渡、湛江港、北津港资料,利用Mann-Kendell法进行年最高潮位趋势检验及突变检验,分析潮水位变化趋势,并通过频率适线分析得到各站设计潮位新成果。研究表明:(1)粤西沿海潮水位呈上升趋势,其中南渡、北津港上升趋势较明显,Z值分别为1.52、1.49,湛江港变化不明显,各站均存在多个突变点,典型突变年份有1980、2011年;(2)延长系列后的频率分析结果表明,随着统计参数的增大,各级频率设计年最高潮位具有一定增幅,其中100年一遇设计值增加0.35~0.5 m,平均增幅约10%。提出了检视海堤防御能力、加快海堤达标加固建设、复核粤西沿海诸河洪潮水面线等工作建议。研究成果可为区域防洪潮安全决策及工程规划、建设提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of tidal stations (Nandu Station, Zhanjiang Port, and Beijin Port) in the coastal areas of western Guangdong.The Mann-Kendall method were used to test the trend and mutation of the annual highest tide level, and analyze the trend of tide level. The new results of design tide level of each station were obtained by curve-fitting Methodology in hydrological frequency analysis.The results show that :(1) The tidal level in the coastal areas of western Guangdong show rising trend, especially in Nandu and Beijin Port,with Z-values of 1.52 and 1.49, respectively. While changes at Zhanjiang Port are not significant. Each station has multiple mutation points, with typical mutation years being 1980 and 2011;(2) The frequency analysis results, extended with additional data, suggest that as the statistical parameters increase, the design annual highest tide level for various frequencies exhibit a certain degree of increase,among which the design tide level of 100-year increases by 0.35~0.5 m, an increase of about 10%.Suggestions were put forward to examine the defense capabilities of seawalls, accelerate the reinforcement construction of seawalls to meet standards, and examine flood tide water surface profile in the coastal areas of western Guangdong. The research results provide a scientific basis for regional flood and tide safety decision-making, as well as for the planning and construction of engineering projects.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-24
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-11
  • 录用日期:2024-11-14
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