岷江上游流域降水数值模拟研究
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1.郑州大学水利与交通学院;2.四川省紫坪铺开发有限责任公司;3.北京建筑大学城市雨水系统与水环境教育部重点实验室

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P33;TV125

基金项目:

河南省自然科学基金资助项目-河南省杰出青年科学基金(242300421038);河南省高等学校重点科研项目计划支持(23A170003);城市雨水系统与水环境省部共建教育部重点实验室开放课题资助课题(USSWE2023KF01)


Numerical Simulation of Precipitation in the Upper Minjiang River Basin
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University;2.Sichuan Province Zipingpu Development Co. , Ltd.;3.Key Laboratory of Urban Stormwater System and Water Environment, Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture

Fund Project:

Supported by Natural Science Foundation of Henan - Henan Province Outstanding Youth Science Fund(242300421038);Key Research Projects Supported by Henan Province's Higher Education Institutions(23A170003);Funded By Open Research Fund Program of Key Laboratory of Urban Stormwater System and Water Environment (Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture), Ministry of Education(USSWE2023KF01)

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    摘要:

    利用WRF模式模拟岷江上游2018—2022年5场降雨,选取FNL和ERA5数据作为初始场,对降雨的空间分布、小时过程及模拟误差进行分析,评估下垫面对降雨过程模拟的影响。结果表明:相较于原始的初始场数据和实测资料,WRF模式能模拟出多时间分辨率的降水序列过程,可提高降雨量级和分布预测,但对峰值的模拟能力不足,实测累积雨量和面雨量被低估;时空分辨率为0.25°×0.25°,3h的初始场数据在岷江上游进行降雨数值模拟的效果较好,10~14 h预见期较优。高程和土地利用条件更新后,累积降雨结果有提升,总体峰值仍低于实测值;融合更新初始场数据能够改进数值模式模拟降水的峰值和过程。

    Abstract:

    The WRF model was used to simulate five rainfall events in the upper Minjiang River from 2018 to 2022, and FNL and ERA5 data were selected as the initial field to analyse the spatial distribution, hourly processes and simulation errors of the rainfall, and to assess the influence of the underlying surface on simulation of the rainfall process. The results indicate that the WRF model can effectively simulate the sequential process of rainfall at multiple temporal resolutions when compared to the original field data and measured information. This capability enhances rainfall magnitude and distribution predictions. However, the model still struggles to accurately simulate peak rainfall and underestimates the measured cumulative and surface rainfall. Furthermore, initial field data with a spatial and temporal resolution of 0.25°×0.25° and 3-h are more effective for numerical simulation of rainfall in the upper Minjiang River, with the 10 to 14-hour forecast period yielding the best results. The elevation and land use condition updates have improved the cumulative rainfall results, the overall rainfall peaks are still lower than the measured values.Integration of updated initial field data can improve numerical model simulations of precipitation peaks and processes.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-02
  • 录用日期:2025-03-03
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