梯级水库间短期入库流量预报技术及应用
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1.武汉大学水利水电学院;2.广西电网电力调度控制中心

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P338+.1

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Short-term Inflow Forecasting Technology and Application for Cascade Reservoirs
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1.School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Wuhan University;2.Guangxi Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center,Nanning

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    摘要:

    入库流量是水库调度最重要的依据之一,梯级水库群相邻水库间干流水流演进及区间来水过程预报的准确性对提高梯级水电站的整体调度水平、充分发挥流域水能资源利用效率具有重要的意义。针对梯级各水库区间资料缺乏的问题,提出将梯级非龙头水库入库流量过程分为“上库出流”和“区间入流”两部分;上库出流采用马斯京根流量演进方法推求到下库;对区间入流,首先通过引入修正系数对根据水量平衡和水流时滞反推得到的区间流量过程进行修正,然后将其分为区间降雨产流和区间河川基流两部分,区间降雨产流用降雨径流关系曲线和单位线法进行计算,区间河川基流量用直线分割法得出。在红水河中下游梯级水库群的实际应用表明,应用本方法预测得到的入库流量过程,与未修正的传统计算方法相比,在纳什效率系数、方差、相关系数、确定性系数等多项指标上都有所改进,显示出本入库流量预报方法的稳定性和准确性;研究成果可为梯级水电站开展短期调度和实时调度提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Inflow is one of the most important basis for reservoir scheduling. The accuracy of the forecast for the progression of mainstream flow between adjacent reservoirs in a cascade reservoir group and the inflow process of the inter-basin area is of great significance to improving the overall scheduling level of cascade hydropower stations and fully utilizing the efficiency of water energy resources in the basin. In response to the lack of data between each reservoir in the cascade, the inflow process of non-leader reservoirs in the cascade is divided into two parts: "outflow from the upper reservoir" and "inflow from the inter-basin area". The outflow from the upper reservoir is derived using the Muskingum flow routing method to the lower reservoir. For the inflow from the inter-basin area, a correction coefficient is first introduced to correct the inter-basin flow process obtained by retrogression based on water balance and flow lag, and then it is divided into two parts: inter-basin rainfall runoff and inter-basin river base flow. The inter-basin rainfall runoff is calculated using the rainfall-runoff relationship curve and the unit hydrograph method, and the inter-basin river base flow is obtained using the linear segmentation method. The practical application in the cascade reservoir group in the middle and lower reaches of the Hongshui River shows that the inflow process predicted by this method has been improved in several indicators such as NSE, variance, correlation coefficient, and coefficient of determination compared to the uncorrected traditional calculation method, demonstrating the stability and accuracy of this inflow forecasting method. The research results can provide a reference for cascade hydropower stations to carry out short-term scheduling and real-time scheduling.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-19
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-10
  • 录用日期:2024-12-20
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