黄河流域极端降水变化及大气环流影响研究
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西北农林科技大学,水利与建筑工程学院

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P468

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Study on the Variation of Extreme Precipitation and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation in the Yellow River Basin
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1.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&2.F University

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    摘要:

    气候变化背景下探究极端降水区域特征和响应机理,对区域防汛抗旱规划和气候灾害预防有重要意义。基于黄河流域86个国家气象台站逐日降水数据,选取8种极端降水指数通过多种趋势和突变检验、克里金插值、交叉小波变换和小波相干分析等方法,综合分析黄河流域1960—2017年极端降水时空变化特征和大气环流影响。结果表明:(1)黄河流域连续湿润日数CWD、年降水量PRCPTOT、强降水日数R10、较强降水日数R20、1日最大降水量RX1day、5日最大降水量RX5day和简单降水强度指数SDII在1960年代—1980年代均呈现减少趋势,在1990年代中后期—2010年代均呈现增加趋势。连续干旱日数CDD、CWD、RX1day、RX5day和SDII突变年份均集中在1980年代中后期和1990年代中前期。(2)CDD呈现从西北到东南递减趋势,CWD呈现从西南到东北递增趋势,PRCPTOT、R10、R20、RX1day、RX5day和SDII整体均呈现从西北到东南递增趋势。仅黄河源头水系和湟水—洮河水系两区域中小部分地区PRCPTOT、R10、R20和SDII有显著增加趋势。(3)各极端降水指数与多变量厄尔尼诺-南方涛动指数(MEI)主要有短周期尺度共振周期,PRCPTOT、R10、R20、RX1day、RX1day和SDII对MEI指数存在超前变化关系。

    Abstract:

    Exploring the regional characteristics and response mechanisms of extreme precipitation within the context of climate change is critically important for regional flood control, drought relief, and climate disaster prevention. Utilizing daily precipitation data from 86 national meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin, eight extreme precipitation indices were selected for analysis. Various methods including trend and mutation tests, continuous wavelet transform, Kriging interpolation, Pearson correlation analysis, cross wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analysis were selected to thoroughly show the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yellow River Basin and the impact of atmospheric circulation on these extreme precipitation events. The results indicate that: (1) Extreme precipitation index including CWD, PRCPTOT, R10, R20, RX1day, RX5day and SDII exhibited a decreasing trend from 1960s to 1980s, and an increasing trend from the middle and late 1990s to 2010s. The mutation years of CDD, CWD, RX1day, RX5day and SDII were concentrated in the late 1980s and early 1990s. (2) CDD decreased from northwest to Southeast, CWD increased from southwest to northeast, and PRCPTOT, R10, R20, RX1day, RX5day and SDII increased from northwest to Southeast. Significant increases in PRCPTOT, R10, R20, and SDII were observed only in certain areas within the headwater region of the Yellow River Basin and the Huangshui—Taohe River system. (3) Each extreme precipitation index and the multivariable El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (Mei) in the atmospheric circulation factors mainly have a short period scale resonance period. PRCPTOT, R10, R20, RX1day, RX5day and SDII have a leading change relationship to the Mei.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-16
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-16
  • 录用日期:2024-12-19
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