滦河流域气象-水文干旱传递及其驱动因素分析
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扬州大学水利科学与工程学院

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P333;P426.616

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水利工程智能建设与运维全国重点实验室开放基金(HESS-2206);水利部水旱灾害防御重点实验室开放基金资助(KYFB202307260034);2023年扬州大学大学生科创基金项目(XCX20230529)。


Analysis of the Propagation of Meteorological to Hydrological Drought and Its Drivers in Luanhe River Basin
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College of Hydraulic Seience and Engineering,Yangzhou University

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    摘要:

    探明干旱的传递特征及其驱动因素对流域早期干旱预警以及防灾减灾至关重要。基于1960-2014年滦河流域的逐月降水和径流数据,采用标准化降水指数和标准化径流指数,结合游程理论、Pearson相关性分析法、方差分解法等分析了气象干旱和水文干旱的时空演变特征、气象-水文干旱传递特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)滦河流域气象干旱发生的次数远大于水文干旱,上游干旱次数多,但历时短、烈度小。(2)滦河流域水文干旱普遍是由气象干旱引发,但不是每一场气象干旱都会引发水文干旱,干旱传递方式多样,传递时间为3-6个月,上游的干旱传递时间长于下游。(3)坡度等流域特征对干旱传递的影响比温度等气象因素更为显著,其中,坡度和LAI分别解释了干旱传递时间在空间上差异的36.1%和28.7% 。

    Abstract:

    Exploring drought propagation characteristics and regional drivers is crucial for early drought warning and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basin. Based on the month-by-month precipitation and runoff data of the Luanhe River Basin from 1960 to 2014, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts, meteorological-hydrological drought propagation characteristics and their driving factors were analyzed by using the standardized precipitation index and the standardized runoff index, and combining with the run theory, the Pearson correlation analysis method, and the variance decomposition method. The results show that: (1) meteorological droughts in the Luanhe basin occur much more frequently than hydrological droughts, and droughts in the upper reaches are more frequent but shorter in duration and less in intensity. (2) Hydrological droughts in the Luanhe basin are commonly triggered by meteorological droughts, but not every meteorological drought triggers hydrological droughts. There are multiple drought propagation modes, and the drought propagation time ranges from 3-6 months, with the drought propagation time in the upper reaches being longer than that of the lower reaches. (3) The influence of watershed characteristics such as slope on drought propagation time is more significant than meteorological factors such as temperature, with slope and LAI explaining 36.1% and 28.7% of the spatial differences in drought propagation time, respectively.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-04
  • 最后修改日期:2024-11-26
  • 录用日期:2024-11-26
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