长江中下游降水分区的季节特征及其对大气环流的响应
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1.三峡大学水利与环境学院;2.中国科学院青藏高原研究所青藏高原地球系统与资源环境重点实验室地气作用与气候效应团队;3.特文特大学地球信息科学与地球观测学院ITC,荷兰 恩斯赫德, AE

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TV122

基金项目:

第二次青藏高原科学考察与研究项目,国家自然科学基金,欧洲空间局、中国国家遥感中心项目


The Influences of the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on the Regional Precipitation in the Middle and Down Stream Area of the Yangtze River on a Seasonal Time Scale
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Water Conservancy and Environment, Three Gorges University;2.College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang;3.Earth-atmosphere interaction and climate effect team of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Key Laboratory of Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Chinese Academy of Sciences;4.College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,;5.ITC, Faculty of Earth Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente

Fund Project:

The second scientific investigation and research project of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,national natural science foundation,European Space Agency, China National Remote Sensing Centre Project

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    摘要:

    探究长江中下游流域季节降水的时空特征及其对大气环流的响应,可以揭示气候变化对流域内异常降水的影响,对进一步准确预估流域旱涝灾情有重要意义。研究基于长江中下游1978—2017年总计40 a的日降雨数据,采用旋转经验正交分解函数(Rotated Empirical Orthogonal function,REOF)以及非参数Mann-Kendall检验等趋势突变检验方法,分析了研究区季节尺度降水的时空变化特征,并结合交叉小波法分析研究区不同季节降水对典型北半球大尺度大气环流的响应。结果显示:(1)在未来,春季降水易在中部Ⅰ区异常增加;夏季降水易在东南Ⅱ区异常增加;秋季降水易在东北Ⅲ区异常增加;冬季降水易在西南Ⅳ区异常减少。(2)春季降水与四种大气环流高度相关,秋季降水不易受环流因子影响,夏、冬季流域东北地区降水易受影响。AO主要影响冬季降水,PDO对易影响春、冬季降水,SOI对夏季降水影响大。流域季节降水对大气环流的响应由南部及东北地区逐渐向西北地区递减;(3)东南Ⅱ区春、秋季降水不可预测性强,夏季降水极端且趋于增加,冬季异常降水影响大且关联小麦种植,需重点关注气候变化对东南地区降水的影响。以上结论可为区域季节性降水灾害防治提供潜在的预测因子,并有助于及时应对区域旱涝灾情,可提高灾害防治措施的针对性和效果。

    Abstract:

    Exploring the spatial and temporal characteristics of seasonal precipitation in the middle and down stream area of the Yangtze River and its response to atmospheric circulation can reveal the impact of climate change on abnormal precipitation in the basin, which is of great significance for further accurate prediction of drought and flood disasters in the basin. Based on the daily rainfall data from 1978 to 2017 in the middle and down stream area of the Yangtze River, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of seasonal precipitation in the study area were analyzed by using the trend mutation test methods such as Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) and nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, and the response of precipitation in different seasons to the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the typical northern hemisphere was analyzed by using the cross wavelet method. The results show : (1) In the future, spring precipitation is likely to increase abnormally in the central region I; summer precipitation tends to increase abnormally in the southeast II region ; autumn precipitation tends to increase abnormally in the Northeast III region; the winter precipitation is easy to decrease abnormally in the southwest IV region. (2) Spring precipitation is highly correlated with four kinds of atmospheric circulation, autumn precipitation is not easily affected by circulation factors, and precipitation in Northeast China is easily affected in summer and winter. AO mainly affects winter precipitation, PDO easily affects spring and winter precipitation, and SOI has a great impact on summer precipitation. The response of seasonal precipitation to atmospheric circulation gradually decreases from the south and northeast regions to the northwest region. (3) The spring and autumn precipitation in the southeastern region II is highly unpredictable, and the summer precipitation is extreme and tends to increase. The abnormal precipitation in winter has a great impact and is related to wheat planting. It is necessary to focus on the impact of climate change on precipitation in the southeastern region. The above conclusions can provide potential predictors for the prevention and control of regional seasonal precipitation disasters and help to respond to regional drought and flood disasters in a timely manner, which can improve the pertinence and effectiveness of disaster prevention and control measures.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-16
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-13
  • 录用日期:2024-12-19
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