基于变异特征的10min~72h综合暴雨公式研究
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云南省水文水资源局

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TV125; TU992

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国家重点研发计划资助(2023YFC3006705)


Study on the 10min-72h Comprehensive Rainstorm Formula Based on Variation Characteristics
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National Key R&D Program of China

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    摘要:

    为满足变化环境下工程设计对更长历时、更高重现期极端暴雨设计需求,以云南省不同典型区域长系列短历时[与题目中“长历时”矛盾]年最大降水量为资料,分析了设计暴雨时程分布变异特征,提出了四参数、两变量指数函数综合暴雨公式形式,明确了参数推求方法,并进行了精度评定。结果表明:(1)云南省暴雨强度地区间有2倍左右差异,随着时长增加,各地暴雨强度在1h处有一变异点,东部和东北部在12h另有一变异点。(2)提出的指数函数综合暴雨公式形式可简化暴雨公式推求过程,满足时长10min~72h、重现期2~100a一遇设计暴雨计算需要,模拟精度整体优于现行暴雨公式,考虑暴雨变异特征进一步提升了公式精度。(3)建立了云南省8个典型区域10min~72h分段综合暴雨公式,绝对均方根误差在0.012~0.028 mm/min,相对均方根误差在2.7%~4.4%,合格率100%。

    Abstract:

    In order to meet the engineering design requirements for longer duration and higher return period extreme rainstorm under changing environment,based on the data of long series short duration rainstorm in different rainstorm areas, analyzed the variation characteristics of design rainstorm time history distribution.The formula form of four parameter, two variable exponential function long duration comprehensive rainstorm is given, the parameter calculation method is defined, and the accuracy is evaluated.The results indicate:(1)The intensity of rainstorm in Yunnan is about twice different among regions. With the increase of time, there is a variation point of rainstorm intensity in each region at 1h, and another variation point in the east and northeast is at 12 h.(2)The formula form of long duration comprehensive rainstorm based on exponential function can simplify the calculation process, meeting the calculation requirements of design rainstorm with duration of 10 min-72 h and return period of 2-100 a, and the simulation accuracy is better than the current rainstorm formula as a whole.The simulation accuracy can be further improved by considering the variation characteristics of rainstorm.(3)The formula of long duration sectional comprehensive rainstorm in eight typical rainstorm areas in Yunnan Province is established. The absolute root mean square error is 0.012-0.028 mm/min, the relative root mean square error is 2.7 %-4.4 %, and the qualification rate is 100 %.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-02
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-07
  • 录用日期:2024-10-12
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