基于土壤水分数据同化的降雨型滑坡预警
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作者单位:

1.南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院;2.水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室;3.天津大学地球系统科学学院;4.东南大学交通学院;5.中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所

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中图分类号:

P33;P345

基金项目:

南京信息工程大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(XJDC202410300658);青海省科技厅基础研究项目(2023-ZJ-705);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(41807286);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41877158);中国科学院成都山地所自主部署创新团队项目(IMHE-CXTD—01)


Early warning of rainfall-induced landslides through soil moisture data assimilation
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Nanjing University of Information Science &2.Technology;3.Key Laboratory of Hydrological and Meteorological Disaster Mechanism and Early Warning;4.School of Earth System Science,Tianjin University;5.School of Transportation, Southeast University;6.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology College Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program(XJDC202410300658);Basic Research Project of Qinghai Provincial Department of Science and Technology(2023-ZJ-705);This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China - Youth Science Fund(NO.41807286);This work was supported by a grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NO.41877158)Science and Technology Research Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. IMHE-CXTD-01)

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    摘要:

    在土壤水分数据同化及滑坡预警中,土壤水力参数的反演结果显著影响了模拟结果的准确性。将窗口粒子滤波(PBS)数据同化方法与基于Rosetta传递函数的土壤水力参数初始化方法(Rosetta方法)相结合,并通过虚拟算例和实际案例评估PBS-Rosetta在提高参数反演精度及滑坡水文模拟准确性方面的作用。结果表明,PBS-Rosetta在虚拟算例中能够获得准确的后验参数,提升滑坡水文模拟的准确性;在四川省都江堰银洞子沟滑坡堆积体的应用中,PBS-Rosetta成功预警了2018年6月26日发生的泥石流灾害。鉴于PBS-Rosetta在提高参数反演及滑坡水文模拟精度方面的显著作用,建议将其推广应用于降雨型滑坡预警领域。

    Abstract:

    When assimilating soil moisture data for the early warning of rainfall-induced landslides, the accuracy of inversely estimated parameters and the modeling of landslide hydrology largely depend on the initialization of soil hydraulic parameters. This study integrates the Particle Batch Smoother (PBS) data assimilation method with the initialized soil hydraulic parameters using the Rosetta pedotransfer function (Rosetta method),and evaluates the combined PBS-Rosetta approach through synthetic numerical examples and real-case applications. The results demonstrate that PBS-Rosetta can obtain accurate posterior parameters and improve the simulation of landslide hydrology. In the application to the Yindongzi Gully landslide case in Dujiangyan, Sichuan Province, PBS-Rosetta successfully provided an accurate early warning for the debris flow disaster that occurred on June 26, 2018. Given its critical role in accurately estimating soil hydraulic parameters and improving landslide hydrological simulations, PBS-Rosetta is recommended for rainfall-induced landslide warning systems.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-16
  • 最后修改日期:2024-08-18
  • 录用日期:2024-08-20
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