SSP情景下黄河流域未来气候变化趋势评估
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黄委水文局

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P467

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Climate Change Projection on the Yellow River Basin: Results of CMIP6 Models
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Hydrological Bureau of the Yellow River Water Resources Commission

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    摘要:

    本文使用国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中共33个全球气候模式的数值模拟结果,评估了黄河流域的气温、降水量气候态的模拟能力,并在此基础上预估了三种SSP情景(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)下黄河流域气温、降水量、不同量级降水日数变化趋势。结果表明,相对于1985-2014年参考时段,三种SSP情景下所有模式集合平均在不同模拟时段均模拟出黄河流域的气温、降水量的增加趋势,最明显的增加时段是2080s时段(2081-2100年),在21世纪前(2041-2060年)、中(2061-2080年)、晚(2081-2100年)期,年均增温1.95~3.31℃、2.0~4.85℃、2.56~6.15℃,降水量距平百分比增加8.22%~9.48%、9.18~13.72%、9.83~20.09%;兰州以上地区是SSP情景下流域气温升高最明显的区域,兰托区间降水量距平百分比增幅最显著;渭河下游、伊洛河、大汶河地区中雨以上量级降水日数增幅最大。三种情景下中高排放气候变化情景(SSP585)下气温、降水量增幅最大,低排放气候变化情景下增幅最小。同时需要指出的是,未来气候变化的不确定性随着预估时段的延长,模式预估不确定性范围增加,三种气候变化情景中高排放情景下的不确定最大。

    Abstract:

    Climate change for the 21st century over the Yellow River Basin(YRB) is projected using multiple climate models within the phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under scientific combination scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs).the models have a demonstrated ability to simulate modern climatology of YR. The climate projection results show an annual warming and humidifying trend in the 21st century under three SSP scenarios, which correlates positively with emission concentration in 2015-2100. With respect to the reference period 1985-2014, the YR annual temperature increases 2.56~6.15℃ in the 2080s, which is stronger than the warming in the early(2040s,2041-2060) and middle(2060s,2061-2080) 21st century. in the early, middle period, annual warming is 1.95~3.31℃and 2.0~4.85℃.At the same time, overall annual precipitation also shows a trend of rising, In the early, middle, and end periods,the precipitation increases about 8.22%~9.48%, 9.18~13.72%, 9.83~20.09% respectively relative to the reference period. For the spatial, the region of Lanzhou upper expresses the most warming trend, and the subregion between Lanzhou and Tuoketuo shows the most obviously rising trend for the matter of the bias percent of precipitation. the frequency of heavy rain days and rainstorm days in the lower reaches of the Wei River,Yiluo River and Dawen River increases obviously than other subregions. It is noted that the above results differ somewhat among models, which indicates a relatively large level of uncertainty and a relatively high (low) reliability o temperature (precipitation) projection.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-25
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-30
  • 录用日期:2024-06-07
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