里下河平原区径流模拟及其对极端降水响应分析
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作者单位:

1.江苏省水利科学研究院;2.河海大学水文水资源学院

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P334

基金项目:

江苏省水利科学研究院自主科研经费专项资金项目(2023Z046,2022Z020)


Runoff simulation and its response to extreme precipitation in the Lixia River Plain
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Affiliation:

1.Jiangsu Hydraulic Research Institute;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University

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    摘要:

    平原河网区地势平坦,水系密集交错,产汇流受人类活动影响强烈,水文过程复杂。随着全球变暖,极端降水事件增加,洪涝灾害频繁,探究平原区径流过程模拟及其对极端降水的响应具有重要意义。通过对流域河网合理概化、空间离散等人工干预处理,改进传统河道和子流域提取,运用SWAT模型模拟里下河平原区2013—2020年汛期流量过程,分析不同极端降水情景下径流变化规律。结果表明:SWAT模型在里下河平原区汛期月径流模拟有较好的适用性,阜宁(射)站决定系数R2和纳什效率系数(NSE)均在0.75以上,相对误差|Re|小于5%;不同极端降水情景模拟下,日均径流量变化较大,峰值变化明显,在20a一遇、50a一遇和100a一遇极端降水下,变化率分别为3.4%、10.2%和14.2%,月均径流变化幅度较小且影响时间较短。研究结果可为里下河平原区水资源合理配置、洪涝灾害科学应对提供依据。

    Abstract:

    Due to the flat topography, complex water system, and strong human activities, the hydrological process is complex. With global warming in recent years, extreme precipitation events have increased and floods are frequent, it is necessary to investigate the hydrological simulation and its response to extreme precipitation in the plains. By improving the traditional river and sub-basin extraction through reasonable generalization and spatial discretization of the river network, the SWAT model was applied to simulate runoff process in the Lixia River Plain during 2013-2020, and the runoff changes under different extreme precipitation scenarios were analyzed. The results show that the SWAT model has a good applicability in the simulation of monthly runoff during the flood season in the Lixia River Plain, as the correlation coefficient R2 and Nash efficiency coefficient NSE were above 0.75 and the relative error |Re| was less than 5% at Funing (She) station. The daily average runoff varied widely and the peak changed obviously under different extreme precipitation scenarios, with the change rate of 3.4%, 10.2%, and 14.2% under the once in 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year extreme precipitation events, respectively. While the monthly average runoff changes were small, and impact time was short. The study could provide references for water resources management and response to floods in the Lixia River Plain.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-28
  • 录用日期:2024-01-03
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