1.Kunming Branch of Yunnan hydrology and Water Resources Bureau;2.Yunnan Provincial Bureau of hydrology and water resources;3.Dehong Branch of Yunnan hydrology and Water Resources Bureau;4.Honghe Branch of Yunnan Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau;5.Information Center(Hydrology Monitor and Forecast Center),Ministry of Water Resources
research on key technologies for assuring and improving the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting by assessing hydrograph similarity
摘 要：本文以滇池流域1970—2020年汛期（5～10月）降水量资料为依据，利用地理信息技术，采用Mann-Kendall秩次检验、小波分析等方法，分析了近50年来滇池流域汛期降水年际变化的趋势性、周期性以及集中度、集中期、降水中心和旱涝发生频率等演变情势。结果表明：①近50年来，滇池流域汛期降水总体呈减少趋势，中部地区降水呈增加趋势，盘龙江上游的松华坝水库以上区域及南部地区降水呈减少趋势；②汛期降水年际变化上存在31 a的主周期，中部主城区降水集中度高于南部地区；③汛期降水的中心整体上有向东部、南部方向偏移的态势，且向东部移动趋势显著；④滇池流域旱涝频发，尤其盘龙江中段昆明主城区为旱涝多发区。该成果对滇池流域水旱灾害防御及水资源管理具有一定的意义。
Abstract: Using the precipitation data of Dianchi basin from 1970 to 2020 flood period (May to October), data processing by GIS technology, combined with Mann-Kendall rank order test and wavelet analysis etc, we analyzed the trend and periodicity of interannual variation of precipitation, as well as the concentration, concentration period, precipitation center of gravity, evolution of the frequency of droughts and floods in the basin flood period in the past 50a.The results show that: ① in the past 50a, the overall trend of flood precipitation is decreasing, with an increase in precipitation in the central region and a decrease in precipitation in the upper reaches of the Panlong River above the Songhua Dam Reservoir and the southern region; ② there is a 31a main cycle of interannual variation in flood precipitation, with a higher concentration of precipitation in the central main city than in the southern region; ③ the overall trend of the center of gravity of flood precipitation is shifting to the east and south, and the trend of shifting to the east is significant. ④Droughts and floods are frequent in the Dianchi basin, especially in the upper and middle reaches of the Panlong River, which is a drought and flood prone area.This achievement has certain significance for flood and drought disaster prevention and water resources management in Dianchi Lake Basin.