1960—2019年里下河地区极端降水时空变化及未来趋势分析
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

江苏省水利科学研究院

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

TV125

基金项目:

江苏省水利科技项目(2019040)


Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and its future trend analysis in the Lixia River Plain from 1960 to 2019
Author:
Affiliation:

Jiangsu Hydraulic Science Institute

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    随着全球变暖,极端天气事件逐渐增加,影响着社会经济发展,揭示区域极端降水时空变化对防洪减灾具有重要意义。基于1960—2019年的逐日降水,通过MK趋势检验、小波分析、重标极差以及克里金插值方法,从强度、频率和持续性三方面分析里下河地区的极端降水指数,并进一步探究其未来趋势变化。结果表明:(1)里下河地区多年平均降水为1017.25 mm,呈不显著增加趋势;空间分布差异明显,总体呈自西北向东南逐渐增加的分布。(2)研究区内各站点极端降水指数变化不同,总体而言,极端降水强度、频率均呈现增加趋势,持续性呈减少趋势。(3)极端降水指数变化过程中存在3类尺度的周期性变化,在整个时间尺度上存在3个偏多中心和2个偏少中心。(4)除R10mm和R20mm未来变化趋势与过去趋势相反且呈弱持续性,其他极端降水指数未来变化趋势与过去相一致,且过去总体趋势对未来趋势的影响时间长度在9~16年左右。研究结果为里下河地区科学合理应对气象灾害、合理配置水资源提供依据。

    Abstract:

    With global warming, extreme weather/climate events increased significantly, affecting socio-economic development. Combined with Mann-Kendall mutation test, cross wavelet analysis, R/S analysis and kriging interpolation method, the daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2019 were used to investigate extreme precipitation indices from three dimensions (intensity, frequency and duration) in the Lixia River Plain. Also, the study explored the future trends. Results showed that: (1) Multiyear mean precipitation was 1017.25 mm with a gradient of increase from northwest to southeast. Temporally, it showed an insignificant upward trend during 1960—2019. (2) Extreme precipitation indices of each station in the Lixia River Plain were different. Generally, intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation in the Lixia River Plain showed an increasing trend, while duration showed a decreasing trend. (3) There were three types of scales of periodic variation in the process of extreme precipitation indices. And there were three centers of excess and two centers of deficiency throughout the time scale. (4) The future trends of R10mm and R20mm were opposite to the past trends and weakly persistent, the others were consistent with the past. The past trends of precipitation will have a longer impacts on the future trends, which will last for 9~16 years. The results of this study provided references for scientific and rational response to meteorological disasters and rational water allocation in the Lixia River Plain.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-06-14
  • 最后修改日期:2022-06-14
  • 录用日期:2022-09-27
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: