Jiangsu Hydraulic Science Institute
With global warming, extreme weather/climate events increased significantly, affecting socio-economic development. Combined with Mann-Kendall mutation test, cross wavelet analysis, R/S analysis and kriging interpolation method, the daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2019 were used to investigate extreme precipitation indices from three dimensions (intensity, frequency and duration) in the Lixia River Plain. Also, the study explored the future trends. Results showed that: (1) Multiyear mean precipitation was 1017.25 mm with a gradient of increase from northwest to southeast. Temporally, it showed an insignificant upward trend during 1960—2019. (2) Extreme precipitation indices of each station in the Lixia River Plain were different. Generally, intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation in the Lixia River Plain showed an increasing trend, while duration showed a decreasing trend. (3) There were three types of scales of periodic variation in the process of extreme precipitation indices. And there were three centers of excess and two centers of deficiency throughout the time scale. (4) The future trends of R10mm and R20mm were opposite to the past trends and weakly persistent, the others were consistent with the past. The past trends of precipitation will have a longer impacts on the future trends, which will last for 9~16 years. The results of this study provided references for scientific and rational response to meteorological disasters and rational water allocation in the Lixia River Plain.