校园雨涝灾害风险因素影响机制研究
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1.浙江农林大学风景园林与建筑学院;2.1.浙江农林大学风景园林与建筑学院2.浙江农林大学浙江省园林植物种质创新与利用重点实验室

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X4

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Study on the influence mechanism of campus rainfall and flooding risk factors and rainfall management
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1.Zhejiang A F University College of Landscape and Architecture,Hangzhou Zhejiang;2.1.Zhejiang A&3.F University College of Landscape and Architecture2. Zhejiang A&4.F University Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Germplasm Innovation and Utilization for Garden Plants

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    摘要:

    当前中国正处于高质量现代化发展的攻坚克难期,城市安全稳定是发展的重要前提。洪涝灾害作为我国最突出的水患问题,给城市生态安全带来严峻挑战。校园作为城市的重要组成单元,也频繁遭受着雨涝灾害。如何降低校园雨涝灾害风险,完善防灾系统,提升校园韧性成为当下校园可持续研究的重要议题。目前校园雨涝灾害的研究主要从地理学、灾害学等角度在灾害模拟、防灾景观规划等领域展开,缺乏对校园雨涝灾害风险影响因子及其内在作用机制的研究。因此,本文综合运用DEMATEL-ISM法,明确各因素间的影响机制及作用程度,构建多级递阶结构模型。结果表明:校园雨涝灾害韧性影响因素可分为五级三阶结构,其中极端日降水量是最关键的根本致因,土地覆盖类型、人口密度、人均GDP、医疗能力是最有效的直接致因。研究可为校园雨涝灾害防治提供科学依据,有助于校园可持续发展。

    Abstract:

    China is currently in a period of hard work for high-quality modern development, and urban safety and stability are important prerequisites for development. Flooding, as the most prominent flooding problem in China, poses a serious challenge to urban ecological safety. As an important component unit of cities, campuses are also frequently subjected to rain and flooding disasters. How to reduce the risk of campus rainfall and flooding, improve the disaster prevention system and enhance campus resilience has become an important topic of campus sustainability research nowadays. At present, the research on campus rainfall and flooding hazards is mainly carried out in the fields of disaster simulation and disaster prevention landscape planning from the perspectives of geography and disaster science, but there is a lack of research on the impact factors of campus rainfall and flooding hazards and their intrinsic mechanisms of action. Therefore, this paper integrates the DEMATEL-ISM method to clarify the influence mechanism and the degree of action among the factors and construct a multi-level recursive structural model. The results show that the factors influencing the resilience of campus rainfall and flooding can be divided into five levels and three order structures, among which extreme daily precipitation is the most critical fundamental causative factor, and land cover type, population density, per capita GDP and medical capacity are the most effective direct causative factors. The study can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of campus rainfall and flooding hazards, and contribute to the sustainable development of campuses.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-31
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-31
  • 录用日期:2022-10-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-01
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