长江流域夏季日面雨量精度与不同站数间关系研究
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湖北省气象信息与技术保障中心

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P49;TV125

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国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项能源与水纽带关系及高效绿色利用关键技术


Study on the relationship between daily rainfall accuracy and different stations in summer in the Yangtze River Basin
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Hubei Meteorological Information and Technical Support Center

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    摘要:

    为探讨不同布站数对统计长江流域夏季日面雨量精度的影响,选取金沙江下游、鄂东北、青弋水阳江3个流域作为研究对象,并挑选出不同站网分布,统计各站网分布计算的2016-2018年夏季日面雨量,运用平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方差(MSE)和相关系数(r)3个技术指标来评价各流域夏季日面雨量精度与站数之间的关系。结果表明:各流域夏季日面雨量精度均受站数变化的影响,MAE、MSE均随站数的增加而减小,但当站数增加到一定数量之后趋于稳定,r也有相同的变化规律,只是随站数增加而增大。同时,通过计算3个技术指标随站数平均变化值,定量得到金下、鄂东北、青弋水阳江流域代表性站数分别为405站、293站、126站,与现有站数相比,分别减少25.1%、55.8%、56.6%,可为计算长江流域夏季日面雨量选用站数和站网布局提供参考。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the influence of different number of stations on the accuracy of statistics of daily rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin in summer, we select the lower reaches of Jinsha River, northeast Hubei and Qingyi Shuiyang River Basin as the research objects, and different number of stations is selected by station pumping method. Then we use the Tyson polygon method to calculate the summer daily area rainfall of each basin from 2016 to 2018, and three technical indexes, mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE) and correlation coefficient (r) be used to evaluate the relationship between the accuracy of daily rainfall and station number in summer. The results show that: the accuracy of daily surface rainfall in each basin in summer is affected by the change of the number of stations. MAE and MSE decrease with the increase of the number of stations, but when the number of stations increases to a certain number, they tend to be stable, and R also has the same change law, but increases with the increase of the number of stations. At the same time, we calculate the average of 3 technical indicators with the number of stations and we quantitatively get 405, 293 and 126 representative stations in Jinxia, northeastern Hubei and Qingyi Shuiyangjiang river basins respectively. Compared with the number of existing stations, it is reduced by 25.1%, 55.8% and 56.6% respectively. It can provide reference for selecting the number of stations and the layout of stations in the Yangtze River Basin.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-07
  • 最后修改日期:2021-12-07
  • 录用日期:2022-09-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-01
  • 出版日期: