1954-2015年叶尔羌流域极端气温和降水的变化特征及其对径流的影响研究
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作者单位:

1.兰州交通大学数理学院;2.中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室

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P333

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(41971094);中国科学院-澳大利亚联邦科学和工业研究组织(CAS-CSIRO)国际合作项目(131B62KYSB20190042);冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题(SKLCS-ZZ-2021);中国科学院青年创新促会员项目(2019414)资助


Study on variation characteristics of extreme temperature and precipitation and their impact on Runoff in Yarkant basin during 1954-2015
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Affiliation:

1.School of mathematics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University;2.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Science

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (41971094); Cas-csiro international cooperation project (131b62kysb20190042); Independent project of State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science (sklcs-zz-2021); Supported by the youth innovation promotion program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (2019414)

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    摘要:

    本文基于1954-2015年叶尔羌流域的气温、降水、径流数据以及极端气候指数,探讨了极端气候与极端水文事件之间的关系,揭示了影响流域水文过程的气候指标结果表明:(1)叶尔羌河流域年平均气温呈显著上升趋势(0.30℃·10a-1),突变时间为1998年,年平均降水呈0.4mm·10a-1的稳定上升趋势。(2)流域径流量呈平稳上升趋势(2.0mm·10a-1),极端径流的阈值为73.9mm,64年间共计发生18次极端径流事件,且极端径流量呈显著上升趋势(1.1mm·10a-1)。(3)流域内的径流以及极端径流变化都由极端气温主导,极端降水的影响较小。影响径流量的因子从大到小依次为暖夜日数,连续无降水日数,夏日日数,霜冻日数,极端降水总量;影响极端径流量的因子从大到小依次为霜冻日数,暖夜日数,夏日日数,极端降水总量,连续无降水日数。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of temperature, precipitation, runoff and extreme climate index from 1954 to 2015, this paper discusses the relationship between extreme climate and extreme hydrological events, and reveals the climate indicators that affect the hydrological process of the Yarkant River Basin. The results show that: (1) the annual average temperature of the Yeerqiang River basin shows a significant upward trend (0.30℃·10a-1), and the mutation time is 1998, The annual average precipitation showed a steady upward trend (0.4mm·10a-1).(2) The runoff of the basin showed a steady upward trend (2.0mm·10a-1), and the threshold of extreme runoff was 73.9 mm. There were 18 extreme runoff events in 64 years, and the extreme runoff showed a significant upward trend (1.1mm·10a-1).(3)The runoff and extreme runoff changes in the basin are dominated by extreme temperature, and the impact of extreme precipitation is small. The factors affecting runoff from large to small are warm night days, continuous non precipitation days, summer days, frost days and total extreme precipitation; The factors affecting extreme runoff from large to small are frost days, warm night days, summer days, total extreme precipitation and continuous no precipitation days.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-09-04
  • 最后修改日期:2021-09-04
  • 录用日期:2022-03-18
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