长江经济带湿地生态系统健康评价与预测
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作者单位:

1.北京建筑大学;2.国家地理空间信息中心

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X826

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目“基于深度置信神经网络的地表覆盖质量检测方法研究”(41671440);国家重点研发专项课题“建筑垃圾天地一体化快速识别技术体系与监测系统”(2018YFC0706003)


Health Assessment and Prediction of Wetland Ecosystem in Yangtze River Economic Belt
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1.Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture;2.State Geospatial Information Center

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    摘要:

    为客观的评价并预测长江经济带湿地生态系统的健康问题,以“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型为框架,在压力、状态和响应3方面共选取12个评价指标来构建湿地生态系统健康评价体系,采用层次分析法(AHP)计算各项指标的权重,同时将湿地生态系统划分为“健康、亚健康、脆弱、疾病、恶劣”五项健康状况,通过综合评价指数(CEI)对长江经济带湿地生态系统健康进行评价与分析,并利用整合移动平均自回归(ARIMA)模型预测2025年湿地生态系统的健康状况。结果表明,长江经济带湿地生态系统健康综合评价指数在2005年到2017年从0.4755增长到0.6137,健康等级从“脆弱”转变为“亚健康”,到2025年综合评价指数预计超过0.7000,继续保持“亚健康”状态。其中,长江经济带湿地生态压力子系统有相对风险,状态和响应指标应继续保持湿地生态系统的健康状态。

    Abstract:

    In order to objectively evaluate and predict the health problems of the wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, a total of 12 evaluation indicators are selected from the three aspects of pressure, state and response to construct the wetland ecosystem based on the "Pressure-State-Response" (PSR) model. The health evaluation system uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to calculate the weights of various indicators. At the same time, the wetland ecosystem is divided into five health conditions: “healthy, sub-healthy, vulnerable, sick, and scurviness”, and the comprehensive evaluation index (CEI) is used to evaluate and analyze the health of the wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to predict the health of the wetland ecosystem in 2025. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of wetland ecosystem health in the Yangtze River Economic Zone increased from 0.4755 to 0.6137 from 2005 to 2017, and the health level changed from "vulnerable" to "sub-healthy". By 2025, the comprehensive evaluation index is expected to exceed 0.7000 and continue to maintain "Sub-health” state. Among them, the wetland ecological pressure subsystem of the Yangtze River Economic Zone has relative risks, and the state and response indicators should continue to maintain the healthy state of the wetland ecosystem.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-05-14
  • 最后修改日期:2021-05-14
  • 录用日期:2022-02-17
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