驻马店市1958~2011年降水序列变化特征分析
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赵恩来(1963--),男,河南南阳人,高级工程师,主要从事水文水资源监测,预报等方面的研究。E-mail:znl1963@126.com

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P426.614

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国家水资源监控能力建设河南省项目;


Study on Characteristics of Precipitation Series in Zhumadian City during 1958-2011
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    摘要:

    掌握区域降水序列变化特征,对落实水资源管理工作、保障工农业生产具有重要意义。基于驻马店市1958~2011年逐月降水资料,借助线性回归方程法、距平分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、5年滑动均值法、Morlet小波分析法研究了驻马店市年、季节降水变化趋势、丰枯性及周期特征。结果表明:驻马店市年、春、夏、秋、冬季降水依次以-1.8mm/10a、-6.6mm/10a、13.1mm/10a、-10.8mm/10a、1.6mm/10a的倾向率呈不显著的线性变化;年、各季降水依次处于偏枯、偏丰、偏枯、偏枯和偏枯期;年降水主周期为22a,次周期为2a、4a和8a,春季降水主周期为9a,次周期为5a和18a,夏季降水主周期为23a,次周期为2a和7a,秋季降水主周期为17a,次周期为5a,冬季降水主周期为13a,次周期为2a和5a。总体上,驻马店市年、各季节降水有着明显趋势特征、丰枯性和周期特征,研究结果可为指导区域内水资源规划与管理工作提供一定的参考。

    Abstract:

    It is signifiecant to understand the change characteristics of regional precipitation series for implementing water resourcesmanagement and supporting industrial and agriculural production. The change trends, high flow and low flow characteristics andperiodicity of annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Zhumadian City were analyzed using the linear regression equationmethod, anomaly analysis method,Mann-Kendall trend test method,5-yearsliding mean method and Morlet wavelet analysismethod, based on the montly precipitation data from 1958 to 2011. The resuls show that at present,the annual precipitation,spring precipitation, summer precipitation,autumn precipitation and winter presipiation are changing with non -distinctive lineartendency ratio of -1.8mm/10a,-6.6mm/10a,13.1mm/10a, -10.8mm/10a and 1.6mm/1Oa,and the anmual precipitation and seasonalprecipitation of Zhumadian City are in the high flow and low flow periods.Meanwhile,the main period of annual precipitation is2years and seondary periods of annual precipitation are 2 years, 4 yeas and 8 years; the main periodls of spring preipitation is9years and the secondar, periods are 5 yeas and 18 yeas; the main period of summer precipitation is 23 years and thesecondary period,are 2 yeas and 7 years; the main pariod of autumn precipitation is 17 years and the secondary periods are 5years and 13 yeans; and the main period of winter precipitation is 13 years and secondary period are 2 years and 15 years.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-03-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-24
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