丹江口水库以上流域夏秋汛期来水及相关性分析
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尹志杰(1980-),男,河北灵寿人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事水文情报预报技术及管理方面工作。E-mail: yinzhijie@mw.gow.cn

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TV87;P333

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国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402710);


Analysis of Runoff and Its Correlation in Watershed above Danjiangkou Reservoir during Summerand Autumn Flood Seasons
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    摘要:

    利用1930~2018年来水资料,分析了汉江丹江口水库以上流域来水年内、年代际、年际变化特征,并运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和Sen’s斜率估计法对来水变化趋势进行了估计,同时基于非参数相关系数对夏、秋汛期来水相关性进行了检验。研究结果表明,流域年、夏汛期及秋汛期来水均呈减少趋势,但均未达到显著水平;夏、秋汛期来水存在明显正相关关系,正相关年份比例超过50%。

    Abstract:

    This paper analyzed the inner-anmual,decadal and annual nunoff variation characteristics in the watershed above theDanjiangkou Reservoir based on the runoff data during 1930-2018. Then Mann -Kendll trend test method and Sen's slopeestimation method were used to evaluate the variation trend of runoff.Meanwhile,the runoff correlations betwen summer andautumn seasons were examined based on the non-parametric corelation coefficienks。The resuls show that the nunoff present anon-significant descending trend in both seasons. The runof of summer flood season has an obvious positive corelation to that ofautumn flood season,and the years of positive correlation had exceeded more than half during 1930-2018.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-24
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