松花江流域尼尔基与丰满水库来水丰枯遭遇频率分析
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王晓妮(1981-),女,山东荣成人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事水利规划工作。E-mail:32330576@qq.com

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P333

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国家重点研发计划“水资源高效开发利用”重点专项“松辽流域江河湖库综合调控技术与应用(2017YFC0406000);


Analysis of Wetness-dryness Inflow Encountering of Nierji and Fengman Reservoirs in Songhuajiang River Basin
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    摘要:

    尼尔基、丰满水库分别为松花江流域两源嫩江和第二松花江干流上的控制性工程,两水库的联合运用对松花江流域(哈尔滨以上)水资源调配意义重大。选取尼尔基和丰满入库年径流系列,采用Copula函数构建了尼尔基和丰满水库来水的联合概率分布模型,并对其丰枯同步和异步频率进行了分析。结果表明:两库丰枯异步频率(60.78%),明显大于丰枯同步频率(39.22%),说明来水条件总体有利于开展水库联合运用;同时,对水库联合运用作用不大的情况(丰丰、丰平、平丰、平平)发生频率为40.92%,有利于水库发挥联合运用效益的情况(丰枯、枯丰、平枯、枯平)发生频率为43.16%,不利情况(同枯)发生频率为15.92%,由于发生不利情况可能性不低,且发生后会对流域供水产生较大影响,因此在水库兴利联合调度方案制定中应认真考虑。

    Abstract:

    The reservoirs of Nierji and Fengman are the control projects of the Songhuajiang River basin.The joint applieation ofthe 2 reservois is of great significance for the water resources allocation in the Songhuajiang River basin above the HabinHydromety Station. In this paper,annual indlow series of the Nierji and Fengman reservois were used to build the jintprobability distribution model for the 2 reservoirs based on Copula function. The results show that the wetness-dryness asynchronousfrequency(60.79%) of the 2 reservoirs is significantly higher than the wetness-dryness synchronous frequeney(39.22%) of theFengman reservoir,indicating the inflow condition is helpful for the joint -operation of the 2 reservois; The pobabiliy ofinsignificant conditions for the reservoirs joint-operation is 40.9%;the probability of the favourable conditions for the reservoirsjoint-operation is 43.18%;the probability of adverse conditions for the reservoirs joint -operation is 15.92%,Due to that theprobability of adverse conditions is not low and once it occurs, it will have great inuence on the water supply.Therefore,seriously consideration should be given in the formulation of joint operation plan.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-06-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-24
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