陆雅君(1988-),女,江苏如东人,工程师，硕士,主要从事强对流天气预报研究。E-mail:lyj_5261@126.com
P45
淮河流域气象开放研究基金项目(HRM201504)；
为更好地为安徽地区汛期的强对流预报服务,在大量历史个例的基础上,选取与强对流天气相关性好的温湿类、动力类、热力类等和业务使用较多的10个对流参数作为预报指示因子,利用2001～2009年逐日4次1°×1°NCEP FNL分析资料计算对流参数值,获得了历史各类强对流天气在汛期不同月份的对流参数特征平均值、气候值和历史排序。通过对各对流参数的分布特征进行对比分析,发现对流参数在不同月份同类强对流天气和不同类别强对流天气发生前表现出明显的差异性,其历史分布特征能反应出不同类别强对流天气出现概率的大小,因此业务预报中需综合考虑。
For?better?service?of?12h?severe?weather?forecasting?in?the?flooding?seasons?in?Anhui?Province,?based?on?1'x1NCEP?FNLanalyeis?data?(four?times?day?by?day)?during?2001-2009,?some?convective?parameters,?including?K,?CAРE,?SWEAT,?PWV?etc.?wereselected?as?predictors.?The?eigenvalue,?mean?value?and?historical?distribution?of?convective?parameters?of?different?kinds?of?strongconvective?weather?in?different?months?in?the?flooding?seasons?were?obtained.?By?comparatively?analyzing?the?distributions?of?theindices,?we?obtained?the?obvious?difference?between?severe?convection?of?the?same?kind?in?different?months?and?the?differencebetween?different?kinds?of?strong?convective?weather?in?different?months.?The?historical?distribution?characteristics?can?relect?theprobability?of?different?kinds?of?strong?convective?weather.
