上海汛期降水日变化特征分析
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穆海振(1974-),男,辽宁建昌人,高级工程师,碘士,从事应用气候研究。E-?-mail:muhz@hotmail.com

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P426.614

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中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201320);公益性气象行业科研专项(201406038);


Variation Characteristics of Daily Precipitation during Flood Season in Shanghai
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    摘要:

    采用1981~2015年上海地区11个气象台站逐时降水资料,对上海汛期(6~9月)降水的日变化特征进行了分析,主要结论如下:(1)上海地区汛期日降水频率呈现出明显的双峰型特征,其中17~19时降水频率最高;降水强度呈现出单峰型日变化特征,在15~16时降水的强度最大。(2)上海8月局部降水事件发生最为频繁,绝大多数时次降水强度均较其他月份偏强;6月全区性降水事件所占比例较其他月份明显偏多,各时次降水频率均较其他月份明显偏高。(3)近30年来上午至中午上海全区性和区域性暴雨事件有增多趋势,导致大多数站点的降水频率在该时段呈现出明显增加趋势,但强度变化不显著;在下午到傍晚局部降水事件增多,导致大多数站点降水强度增强。

    Abstract:

    The?hourly?precipitation?data?of?11?meteorological?stations?during?1981-?-2015?in?Shanghai?were?used?to?study?the?varia-tion?characteristica?of?daily?precipitation?in?flood?season?(June-?September),?the?main?conclusions?are?as?fllows:?(1)?The?Shanghaiarea?daily?precipitation?frequency?shows?obvious?characteristics?of?the?double?peak?type?with?highest?probability?of?precipitationduring?17:00-?19:00?BST;?precipitation?intensity?showing?characteristics?of?single?peak?diurmal?variation?type?with?the?maximum?in-tensity?during?15:00-16:00?BST.?(2)?In?Shanghai,?local?scale?rainfall?events?occurred?most?frequently?in?August,?with?strongerhourly?rainfall?intensity?than?other?months;?In?June,?the?proportion?of?whole-?-region?scale?rainfall?events?is?obviously?more?than?oth-er?months,?the?hourly?rainfall?probability?was?significantly?higher?than?other?months?as?well.?(3)?From?moming?to?noon,?the?regionalscale?and?whole-?-region?scale?rainfall?event?shows?increasing?trend?in?recent?30?years,?resulting?in?increasing?precipitation?frequencyand?no?change?on?rainfall?intensity;?from?aftemoon?to?evening,?the?local?scale?rainfall?events?shows?increasing?trend,?resulting?inenhanced?rainfall?intensity?at?most?observation?sites.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-06-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-24
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