双校正模式下的大清河流域陆气耦合洪水预报研究
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

田济扬(1989-),男,山西怀仁人,博士后,主要从事数据同化、陆气耦合及洪水预报工作。E-mail:tjyahd@126.com

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P338

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(51822906);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502405、2016YFA0601503);中国水科院基本科研业务费项目(WR0145B732017);河北省水利科研项目(2015-16);


Flood Forecast in Using A Coupled Atmospheric-Hydrologic Modeling System with Dual Correction Models in Daqinghe Basin
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    基于数值大气模式WRF、三维变分数据同化WRF-3DVar、河北雨洪模型以及实时校正模型ARMA,在北方半湿润半干旱地区的大清河流域构建了陆气耦合洪水预报系统,并利用2012、2013年发生的3场降雨洪水,对系统的降雨洪水预报结果进行分析。结果表明:雷达反射率与GTS数据的同时同化,可有效改善数值大气模式对中小尺度流域的降雨预报效果,从而降低系统的洪水预报误差,ARMA模型的应用,能够进一步提升系统的洪水预报精度,随着预见期的延长,系统的预报精度下降,但系统在6h预见期内仍表现出较好的应用效果。因此,在数据同化和实时校正的"双校正"模式下,陆气耦合洪水预报系统在延长洪水预报预见期的同时,具有较高的洪水预报精度,具有一定的应用前景。

    Abstract:

    The coupled atmospheric -hydrological modeling system is constructed by WRF model, WRF -3DVar system, Hebei rainfall-runo£f model and ARMA model in the Daqinghe basin. Three flood events occurred in 2012 and 2013 were chosen to test the system. The results show that assimilating radar reflectivity and GTS data can effectively improve the rainfall forecasts, which can reduce the flood forecasting errors of the system. The accuracy of the flood forecast can be further improved by the application of the ARMA model. Although the flood forecasting accuracy is reduced with the extension of the forecasting time, the application effect of the system performs well within 6h forecasting time. With the double correction mode (data assimilation and real -time adjustment method), the coupled atmospheric -hydrological modeling system can not only extend the forecasting time, but also has high accuracy of flood forecasting. The system will have a certain application in flood warning and forecasting.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-09
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-24
  • 出版日期: