Based on the data from the 82 meteorology stations in the upper Yangtze River basin, and the precipitation andtemperature data during 1961-2099 of the eight CMIP5 models under two scenario, the statistical downscale study was conductedby using Equidistance Cumulative Distribution Function Method (EDCDFm). On this basis, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)hydrological model of 0.5° ×0.5° grid spatial resolution was built to simulate the historical flow. Furthermore, the spatial andtemporal evolution characteristics and trends of the runoff and evapotranspiration in the upper Yangtze River basin from 2006 to2099 were analyzed. The results show that VIC hydrological model can well simulate the hydrological processes in the study area.According to the prediction of major hydrological process trends in the future (2006-2099) over the upper Yangtze River basin, thetrend of runoff change is not obvious while the evapotranspiration is increasing.