金沙江干流与雅砻江洪水遭遇规律研究
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张新田(1962 -),男,湖北武汉人,高级工程师,研究方向为水文学及水资源。E-mail:zhangxt@cjh.com.cn

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P333.2

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国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402201;2016YFC0400901);


Flood Coincidence Probability Analysis for Jinshajiang River and Yalongjiang River
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    摘要:

    由于环流形势、天气影响系统和水汽输送等共同之处,金沙江和雅砻江所出现的大暴雨过程多具有同期性,加上产汇流在时间和空间上的组合,易形成干支流同期同步的大洪水。采用攀枝花站、桐子林站19652014年实测水文资料,分析金沙江与雅砻江的洪水组成及遭遇情况。研究结果表明,金沙江上中游和雅砻江洪水一般发生在610月,尤以79月最为集中,金沙江中游和雅砻江年最大洪峰流量在此期间出现的频率达95%以上。金沙江中游和雅砻江下游洪水均有涨落平缓、历时长、洪量大的特点,洪水持续时间约15d左右,攀枝花和雅砻江年最大洪峰遭遇概率达50%左右。从金沙江与雅砻江洪水过程遭遇次数和概率上来看,年最大3d、7d、15d洪水过程遭遇的概率分别为30%、36%、52%,金沙江与雅砻江3d以上洪水过程遭遇概率较高。基于二维Copula函数建立的金沙江攀枝花站与雅砻江桐子林站年最大洪峰流量联合分布计算结果可知,虽然金沙江与雅砻江常遇洪水易发生洪水遭遇,但两江同时发生稀遇大洪水的概率并不高,但是当金沙江发生大洪水时,雅砻江出现较大洪水的概率较高。

    Abstract:

    Due to the simularity of the circulation situation, weather impact system and water vaportransportation lead to the synchronism of therainstorm processes in the river basins of Jinshajiang and Yalongjiang,and the combination of runoff yield and flow concentration in spatia-temporal movement, it is easy to form great flood in the mainstream and tributaries at the same time. The hydrological data of the Panzhihua andTongzilin stations from 1965 to 2014 were used to analyze the flood compositions and coincidence probabilities between the rivers of Jinshajiangand Yalongjiang. The results indicate that the great floods generally occur in the upper and middle reaches of Jinshajiang River and YalongjiangRiver from June to October, especially from July to September, during which the occurrence frequency of the maximum annual flood peakdischarge is over 95%. The floods are characterized of flat fluctuation,long duration and large water volume in the middle reaches of theJinshajiang River and the lower reaches of the Yalongjiang River. The floods can last about 15d, and flood peak coincidence probability is about50%. The probabilities of 3d, 7d and 15d flood process coincidence are respectively 30%, 36% and 52%. Based on the results of peak flood twodimensionalCopula joint distributions between the Panzhihua and Tongzilin station, great floods generally occur between the Jinshajiang Riverand Yalongjiang River.However, the probability of great floods in both two rivers is not high at the same time. If it happens a great flood in theJinshajiang River, there would be a higher probability for a large flood in the Yalong River.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-06-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-23
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