北京“7·20”特大暴雨的时空多要素分析
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杨默远(1989-),男,河南开封人,博士,主要从水文水资源研究。E-mail: ymoyuan@163.com

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P458.12

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北京市科委重大项目(D161100005916001,D161100005916003,Z161100001116104);北京市科技新星计划(Z161100004916085);国家科技重大专项(2013ZX07304-001);


Multi-factor Analysis of Torrential Rain Occurred in Beijing on July 20, 2016
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    摘要:

    基于高站点密度的场次降雨数据对2016年7月20日发生在北京地区的特大暴雨过程进行分析,明晰其时空演变过程。主要结论如下:(1)暴雨中心降雨总量在350mm以上,大致呈带状分布,主要位于海拔高度在200400m范围内的山麓平原,说明地形抬升作用对暴雨的形成有明显的促进作用;(2)暴雨中心处发生的是长历时、高强度的降雨过程,而位于怀柔区和密云区交界处的暴雨副中心处发生的是短历时、高强度的降雨过程;(3)暴雨过程为一小一大的双峰雨型,第二阶段是整个降雨过程的主过程,降雨总量达到184.7mm,与北京"7·21"暴雨的降雨总量基本持平,超过20年一遇标准;(4)随着降雨总量的增加,各站点最大1h雨强呈线性增加的趋势,且最大雨强出现时刻有所提前,随着统计时段的增加,最大降雨总量增加的速率逐渐变缓,可由对数函数进行拟合。

    Abstract:

    Based on the rainfall data of high-density sites, the extreme torrential rain process occurred in Beijing on July 20 2016was analyzed, and the spatial-temporal evolution process was clarified. The main conclusions are as follows: the total amount of therainfall in the storm center is above 350mm, roughly zonal distributed, located in the line of Fangshan district, Mentougou districtand Changping district, and also located in the piedmont plain with the altitude within the range of 200 -400m, indicating thetopographic uplift of transition from the plains to the mountain has significant role in the formation of heavy rain. The rainfalloccurred in the center of rainstorm has long-duration and high -intensity, and the peak of rain intensity lasts for more than 3hours, while the rainfall occurred in the sub-center of rainstorm being located in the districts of Huairou and Miyun has a shortdurationand high -intensity, and the peak of rain intensity lasts for less than 3 hours. The rain process is two -peak rainfallpattern, and the second stage is the main course of the rainfall process. In this stage, the total amount of rainfall reache up to184.7mm, with the approximately amount of “7·21” storm, reaching 20-year frequency standards, and the rainfall pattern has agood symmetry, following a normal distribution under the 0.95 confidence level. With the increase of the total rainfall, themaximum rainfall intensity of different sites shows linear increasing trend, and the occurrence moment of the maximum rainfallintensity advances (correlation coefficient is higher than 0.9); with increasing of statistical period, the increasing rate of maximumtotal rainfall gradually slows, which can be fitted by logarithm function (correlation coefficient is higher than 0.9).

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  • 收稿日期:2017-01-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-23
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