合肥市暴雨强度公式的推求研究
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王睿(1990-),男,安徽合肥人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水利水电工程规划设计。 E-mail:zjueacua@163.com

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TU992.02

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Derivation of Rainstorm Intensity Formula for Hefei City
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    摘要:

    城市暴雨强度公式的准确性直接影响着城市排水管网的规范设计.合肥市原有暴雨强度公式亟需重新修订。对合肥市董铺站19652012年共48年的全部暴雨资料进行分析,用年最大值法取样,采用皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布,指数分布和耿贝尔分布曲线进行拟合,对频率分析后的数据分别采用了麦夸尔特法,高斯-牛顿法,遗传算法,拟牛顿法,模拟退火法,粒子群算法共6种优化算法进行公式参数推求,最终确定以指数分布配合麦夸尔特法确定的公式精度最好,公式精度大大优于合肥市原有的暴雨强度公式,所推求出的暴雨强度公式可用于洪水灾害的危险性分析、城市给水排水设计等供水灾害管理中,对合肥市的防涝、排涝、排水设施规划和工程设计具有重大意义。

    Abstract:

    The accuracy of rainstorm intensity formula directly affects the design of city water supply and drainage pipeline network. The original rainstorm intensity formula for Hefei City was determined in the 1970s which has been unable to meet present requirement in the precision and standardization. For the urgent need to revise a new formula, the precipitation data at the Dongpu Station in Hefei City from 1965 to 2012 were analyzed. All the data were taken with the annual maximum sampling method, and the fitting was made by using the method of Pearson-Ⅲ type of distribution,exponential distribution and Gumbel distribution. In order to determine the parameters of the formula, 6 optimization algorithms such as Levenberg-Marquart algorithm, Gauss-Newton method, quasi-Newton method, genetic algorithm, simulated annealing algorithm and particle swarm algorithm were used. Finally, the best formula was ascertained with exponential distribution maching Marquart algorithm. The accuracy is greatly improved relative to the original formula. The new formula can be used in many fields such as risk analysis of flood disasters and design of city water supply and drainage pipeline network. This new formula has great significance to prevent waterlogging, drainage, drainage facilities planning and engineering design of Hefei City.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-01-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-22
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