不同小波函数对灰色模型精度影响分析
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时召军(1987-),男,安徽寿县人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源及农田水利研究。 E-mail:shizj88@qq.com

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P333

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Influence of Different Wavelet Functions on Accuracy of Gray Model
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    摘要:

    针对小波灰色模型在水文序列预测中面临的小波函数的选择问题,采用安庆站19562011年实测降雨量作为算例,以传统的灰色模型预测值作为参考,考虑了Haar、Db、Smy、Coif、Bior、Rbio、Dmey等7种小波基函数,通过方差和纳什系数作为模型预测评价指标,对不同小波灰色模型精度影响进行了分析。结果表明:不是所有小波函数与灰色模型耦合都能提高模型的精度;安庆站19562011年实测降雨量水文序列来说,db1小波函数对模型精度提高的效果最明显。

    Abstract:

    In light of the problem that how to select the wavelet function facing the prediction of hydrological series by the wavelet based gray model, this paper analyzed the impacts on the accuracy of different wavelet based gray models by taking the measured rainfall of the Anqing Station as an example and using the predicted values of the traditional gray model as a reference. It also took the seven kinds of wavelet functions including Haar, Db, Smy, Coif, Bior, Rbio and Dmey into consideration and made the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) as the evaluation?indexes to the models. The result shows that different wavelet functions have both positive and negative effects on the accuracy of models, among which db1 wavelet function is the most effective one to improve the accuracy of the model based on Anqing’srainfall series..

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  • 收稿日期:2014-11-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-21
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