河流年径流量的R/S灰色预测
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李宝玲(1992-)女,河南郑州人,本科生,专业为水文学与水资源。 E-mail:libaoling0806@163.com

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TV121.4

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国家自然基金重点项目“黑河流域生态水文样带调查”(91025002);


R/S Grey Prediction of River Annual Runoff
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    摘要:

    径流过程具有分形和灰色特征。基于此,将R/S分析与灰色系统理论相结合,提出了R/S灰色预测模型以预报河流年径流量。针对黑河正义峡水文站60a(19492011年)的年径流量资料,首先进行R/S分析,确定径流量序列的Hurst指数H和平均循环周期T;然后在一个周期内进行年径流量灰色预测。结果表明:R/S灰色预测结果的精度明显高于直接进行灰色预测的精度。该方法拓宽了分形和灰色理论在径流过程研究的应用范围,为河流径流量的科学预测提供了一种新方法。

    Abstract:

    River runoff series has the characteristics of fractal and gray. Therefore, by combining gray system theory with R/S analysis, R/S gray prediction model was proposed to forecast annual runoff. Based on the data of the annual runoff at the Zhengyixia Station of the Heihe River during the period 1949 -2011, the runoff series were analyzed by R/S method. The Hurst exponent and average cycle of river runoff series were determined firstly; then, in one cycle, annual runoff was predicted by gray. The prediction results show that R/S gray prediction model has higher precision indeed. This method broadens the application range of fractal theory and grey model, and provides a new scientific approach for predicting annual runoff

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  • 收稿日期:2014-02-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-21
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