Based on historical simulations of 7 GCMs provided by CMA and the recorded climatic data from the 108 basic national meteorological stations within the Yellow River Basin, suitability of the 7 CMIP5 GCMs to the Yellow River Basin was assessed with three indices of mean, standard deviation, and linear trend rate. Variation trend of climate for the next decades over the Yellow River Basin was then analyzed with climatic projections of the most suitable GCM under the RCP emission scenario. The results show that MPI -ESM performs better for historical simulation of climatic variables as comparing to other GCMs. Temperature over the Yellow River Basin was projected a steady rising trend with linear rising rate of 0.28~0.45℃/10a, while precipitation will probably undergo a slight decline trend with high variability from 2021 to 2050, in which multi-year average is equivalent to or slight less than the baseline (1961~1990). Under the three RCP scenarios, seasonal patterns as well as spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during 2021~2050 were all changed relative to baseline. Higher temperature rise will probably occur in February, August, and Septem ber, and lowest rise occur in May. Precipitation in February, May, and December will likely get a higher increase while those in June to August are all less than baseline. Spatially, higher temperature rise will occur in source area of the Yellow River, and the reaches of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia autonomous regions, precipitation change is from positive in the source area to negative in the lower reaches of the Yellow River for RCP 26 and RCP85 scenario, RCP45scenario will probably make precipitation in most area of the Yellow River basin less than baseline.