防洪减灾风险管理之思辨
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

NULL

作者简介:

朱元甡 (1934-),男,安徽旌德人,教授,研究方向为水文分析与计算、风险分析。 E-mail: zhuyuansheng502@yahoo.com.cn

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

X43;TV87

基金项目:


Discussion on Flood Risk Management
Author:
Affiliation:

NULL

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    分析梳理了防洪减灾风险、风险及其分析、风险管理和治理等概念,指出防洪减灾理念从20世纪早期的"控制洪水"到20世纪后期的"减小洪灾损失"再到21世纪初的"降低洪灾风险"的演变,与防洪减灾形势、社会公共管理水平等密切相关;防洪减灾风险源于洪水时空变化的不确定性、承灾体的不确定性和防灾减灾措施实际效果的不确定性等,需要根据具体问题做具体分析;防洪减灾风险管理指采取多方参与方式,在洪灾发展周期的不同阶段,针对多种不确定性,综合分析各种风险,力求做出相对科学的决策。在防洪减灾风险管理的研究和实践中,应重视有关人文因素及其不确定性、构建风险分析文化的重要性。

    Abstract:

    The concepts, including flood risk, risk analysis, risk management, as well risk governance, were discussed in this paper. It pointed out: (1) The idea of flood disaster reduction was changed from “flood control” in the early 20 century, to “flood-induced loss reduction” in the late 20 century, then to “flood risk reduction” in the 21 century, and the changes were closely related to the practical situation of flood disaster reduction, social public administration level, etc, in different stage. (2) Risk in flood disaster reduction was sourced from uncertainties in spatial and temporal distribution of flood, receptors of disaster, and measures of disaster prevention and reduction, etc, therefore, flood risk analysis should be based on practical situation of flood aiming at different issues. (3) Risk governance in flood disaster reduction emphasizes public involvement mechanism, and tries to provide a satisfied decision based on comprehensive evaluation for risk of profit and loss for each stakeholder according to multiple uncertainties in different evolution stages of flood disaster. Finally, this paper emphasized the importance of human factors and its uncertainties in the practice of risk management for flood disaster reduction.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2012-08-15
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-20
  • 出版日期: