基于GAMLSS的非一致性设计洪水研究——以云南省盘龙河龙潭寨水文站为例
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1.云南农业大学 水利学院;2.昭通市水利水电勘测设计研究院;3.云南兴电集团有限公司;4.云南省水文水资源局

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TV122

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云南省应用基础研究计划项目青年项目(2014FD022);云南省教育厅科学研究(2022J0341)


Study on non-stationary design floods based on GAMLSS: A case study of Longtanzhai hydrological station in the Panlong River, Yunnan
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1.College of Water Conservancy,Yunnan Agricultural University;2.Survey Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower in Zhaotong;3.Yunnan Xingdian Group Co,Ltd;4.Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Yunnan Province

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    摘要:

    气候变化和人类活动等因素使洪水序列的一致性遭到破坏,因此推求非一致性条件下的设计洪水具有重要的理论和实践价值。以云南省盘龙河龙潭寨水文站为例,采用实测和模拟、预测的降水和洪水数据,基于GAMLSS模型和等可靠度方法计算一致性,以及以时间、降水为协变量的非一致性的设计洪水。结果表明:(1)以降水为协变量的非一致性概率模型好于以时间为协变量的非一致性和一致性的概率模型,其不仅能够模拟洪水序列的趋势,还能够反映洪水的波动变化。(2)龙潭寨水文站的一致性的设计洪水为269~423m3/s,总体大于非一致性的设计洪水(182~432m3/s)。(3)以降水为协变量的设计洪水可能更为合理。研究结果可为洪水灾害防治和水利工程设计等提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    Owing to the climate change and human activities, it is important to use non-stationary methods for design flood calculation. Taking Longtanzhai hydrological station on the Panlong River in Yunnan Province as a case, using the observed, simulated, and predicted precipitation and flood datasets based on the GAMLSS model and Equal Reliability method, the stationary and non-stationary design floods were calculated. The results show that, (1) the non-stationary probability models with precipitation as the covariate are better than the non-stationary probability models with time as the covariate and the stationary probability model. The precipitation-covariate models can both simulate the trend and fluctuation of floods. (2) The stationary design flood (269-423 m3/s) is generally greater than the non-stationary one (182-432 m3/s) at Longtanzhai hydrological station. (3) It is more reasonable to use precipitation as a covariate for the study case. The results could provide the foundation for flood management as well as the design of water conservation projects.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-01
  • 最后修改日期:2024-01-10
  • 录用日期:2024-01-11
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