基于Vine Copula的强风暴雨复合型风险分析
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

1.北京市十三陵水库管理处;2.清华大学水利水电工程系

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

p333.2

基金项目:


Composite risk analysis of strong wind and rainstorm based on Vine Copula
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Beijing Ming Tombs Reservoir Management Office;2.Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    构建了基于D-Vine Copula函数的强风暴雨复合型分布模型,利用北京市十三陵水库流域的实测数据进行敏感性分析及风险评估。结果表明:联合分布对降水量、降水强度、风速和温度4个研究因子的敏感性具有差异性。基于敏感性分析结果,随着降水强度和风速的概率分布值增大,联合概率分布增大,同现概率分布减小,最大联合风险率为24.5%;随着降水强度和降水量的概率分布值增大,联合概率分布增大,同现概率分布减小,最大联合风险率为18.1%;Vine Copula可较好地反映出水文气象因子间的相关关系,降水强度和风速、降水量和降水强度因子组合均对联合分布呈现正相关关系,发生气象灾害时易出现联合响应。该研究为强风暴雨复合型风险的调控等提供了理论与方法支撑。

    Abstract:

    The composite distribution model of strong wind and rainstorm based on D-Vine Copula function is constructed, and the measured data of Ming Tombs and reservoir basin in Beijing are used. The results show that the joint distribution is not sensitive to precipitation, precipitation intensity, wind speed and temperature. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, With the value of probability distribution of precipitation intensity and wind speed, Increasing values in the joint probability distribution, The-occurrence probability distribution decreases, The maximum combined risk rate was 24. 5%; As the probability distribution value of precipitation intensity and precipitation increase, Increasing values in the joint probability distribution, The-occurrence probability distribution decreases, The maximum combined risk rate was 18. 1%; Vine Copula Can better reflect the correlation between hydrometeorological factors, The precipitation intensity and the combination of wind speed, precipitation and precipitation intensity factors all show a positive correlation to the joint distribution, Joint response is prone to the occurrence of meteorological disasters. This study provides theoretical and methodological support for the regulation of hydrometeorological compound risks.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-06-25
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-30
  • 录用日期:2024-01-29
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: