基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证
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P338.9

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清华大学百名人才引进计划基金 , 引进国际先进农业科技计划(948计划) , 长江科学院公益性科研项目


Flood forecasting in the Three-Gorge Reach based on a Distributed Hydrological Model(Ⅰ):Modeling and Calibration
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    摘要:

    长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.

    Abstract:

    The floods occurred in the Three-Gorge Reach of the Yangtze River due to rainstorms have most important influence for the safety and operation of the Three-Gorge Reservoir. Toward reducing the uncertainty of flood forecasting as much as possible, a distributed hydrological model based on characteristics of catchment geomorphology was developed, which could describe the spatial variability of topography, land use, soil properties as well as its hydrological responding to rainfall. In this paper, model calibration and validation was done by means of the hourly rainfall measured at raingauges as model input, and discharge data observed at hydrological stations as the comparison of model output. The results show that most of flood processes can be simulated well and the dominated uncertainty to reduce the accuracy of flood modeling is inadequate information of rainfall input.

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  • 收稿日期:2007-02-25
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