Journal of China Hydrology
1000-0852
article
基于多种Copula函数的平陆运河上游郁江段雨洪遭遇综合分析
Comprehensive analysis of rainfall-flood encounter in the Yujiang river section of the upper Pinglu Canal based on multiple copula functions
为辨识平陆运河上游郁江段雨洪关系并揭示暴雨-洪水遭遇概率，采用多种Copula函数构建了区域年最大1日降雨量和最大洪峰流量的联合分布模型，并引入图形评价法、欧式平方距离和OLS 准则优选最佳模型，进而定量揭示典型情境下的区域雨洪遭遇概率和条件最可能组合。结果表明：Clayton型分布模型是雨洪联合分布拟合度最优的二维 Copula函数，欧式平方距离和OLS准则分别达到0.120和0.044；暴雨-洪水联合风险高，联合风险概率是同期单暴雨发生或单洪水发生概率的1.5倍；0.5%、1%、2%的典型暴雨情景下，对应最可能洪水概率分别为0.6%、1.3%、2.6%，平陆运河上游郁江段防洪任务艰巨。
To identify the rainfall-flood relationship and reveal the probability of storm-flood encounters in the Yujiang river section of the upper Pinglu Canal, this study adopted a variety of Copula functions to construct a joint distribution model for joint storm-flood modeling. Meanwhile, the graphical evaluation method, the squared Euclidean distance, and the OLS criterion were applied to optimize the best Copula model. Finally, the probability of rainfall-flood encounters and the top likelihood of flooding under various rainfall scenarios were evaluated and investigated. The results show that the Clayton-based model is the best-fitting Copula function for the joint storm-flooding distribution, and the squared Euclidean distance and the OLS criterion reach 0.120 and 0.044, respectively; the risk of combined storm-flood is significantly, and the probability of joint flooding is 1.5 times higher than that of a single storm (or flooding) occurs;? the top probable flooding of the corresponding conditions under the typical rainfall scenarios of 0.5%, 1%, and 2% are 0.6%, 1.3%, and 2.6%, respectively. Flood control in the upper Yujiang River section of the Pinglu Canal is a difficult challenge.
Copula函数；雨洪遭遇；联合风险；平陆运河
Copula; storm-flood encounters; joint risk; Pinglu Canal
陆彦婕,倪倩,甘富万,高扬,雷兴碧
LU Yanjie,NI Qian,GAN Fuwan,GAO Yang,LEI Xingbi
1.广西大学;2.广西珠委南宁勘测设计院有限公司
1.Guangxi University;2.Guangxi Zhuwei Nanning Survey Designing Institute
sw/article/abstract/2023-329