1.南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院;2.Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission;3.西华大学水利水电工程系
1.School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;2.Department of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Xihua University
为明确珠江流域雨季特征及ENSO对雨季降雨的影响，利用多尺度滑动T检验法划分了珠江流域雨季，阐明CPW、EPC、EPW、传统ENSO和ENSO Modoki五种ENSO类型在发展期和衰减期对珠江流域雨季降雨产生的影响及其物理归因。研究结果表明：在EPC发展期和衰减期，珠江流域的雨季降雨显著减小；ENSO和ENSO Modoki在发展期更容易引发洪涝，而衰减期更容易引起干旱；更强的印度洋季风和北太平洋西部的反气旋会为珠江流域雨季带来更多的降雨。明确多种ENSO类型对珠江流域雨季降雨空间分布的影响，可为我国防汛抗旱及水资源管理提供技术支持和理论依据。
This study aims to clarify the influences of different types of ENSO on rainy-season precipitation over the Pearl River basin (ZRB). The multiscale moving-t test method was used to determine the onset and retreat of rainy season. The effects of different types of ENSO over the developing and decaying phase on rainy-season precipitation and their underlying causes are investigated. It could be pointed out that dry signals were identified over the developing and decaying phases of EPC. There is a higher possibility to trigger floods (droughts) over developing (decaying) ENSO and ENSO Modoki. Stronger anticyclone and monsoon are generally associated with increasing rainy-season precipitation. Clarifying the impact of multiple ENSO types on the spatial distribution of rainy-season rainfall in the Pearl River Basin can provide technical support and theoretical basis for national defense against floods and droughts.