青岛市1956-2016年降水量和水资源量变化特征研究
Study on variation characteristics of precipitation and water resources in Qingdao from 1956 to 2016
投稿时间:2021-03-05  修订日期:2021-03-05
DOI:
中文关键词:  降水量  水资源量  变化趋势  突变检验  Mann-Kendall检验  滑动t检验
英文关键词:precipitation  water resources  changing trend  mutation  Mann-Kendall test  Moving T-test
基金项目:
作者单位邮编
胡萌 青岛市水务事业发展服务中心 266071
盛英武 青岛市水务事业发展服务中心 
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中文摘要:
      为了解青岛市水资源变化特征,以1956-2016年降水量、地表水资源量、地下水资源量和水资源总量为研究对象,采用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验进行变化趋势分析与突变分析。结果表明:青岛市降水量、地表水资源量、地下水资源量、水资源总量总体上都呈显著减少趋势。水资源量的变化趋势受到降水量的显著影响,地下水资源量与降水量相关系数最小。Mann-Kendall检验结果显示,1967年以后降水量与水资源量均呈减少趋势;降水量于1986-2002年达到显著性水平;地表水资源量与水资源总量均在八九十年代达到显著性水平;地下水资源量于1983年达到置信度临界值。滑动t检验结果显示,步长为2时,降水量、地表水资源量、水资源总量均通过显著性检验;降水量有1个突变点,为1992年;地表水资源量、水资源总量各有2个突变点,均为1968年和1971年。
英文摘要:
      In order to find out the variation characteristics of water resources in Qingdao, the variation characteristics of the annual precipitation, surface water resources, groundwater resources and total water resources from 1956 to 2016 were analyzed. Linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Moving T-test were used to analyze the changing trend and mutation. The results indicated that: The precipitation, surface water resources, groundwater resources and the total water resources in Qingdao all decreased significantly. The changing trend of water resources was significantly affected by precipitation, and the correlation coefficient between groundwater resources and precipitation was the smallest. Mann-Kendall test showed that: since 1967, both precipitation and water resources decreased. The precipitation reached a significant level from 1986 to 2002. Both the surface water resources and the total water resources reached significant levels in the 1980s and 1990s. The groundwater resources reached the critical value of confidence in 1983. Moving T-test results showed that: when the step size was 2, the precipitation, surface water resources and total water resources passed the significance test. There was a mutation point of precipitation, in1992. There were two mutation points in surface water resources and total water resources, in 1968 and 1971.
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