海南岛水资源承载力分析及预测研究
Analysis and prediction of water resources carrying capacity of Hainan Island
投稿时间:2021-03-04  修订日期:2021-03-04
DOI:
中文关键词:  水资源承载力  水资源可利用量  万元GDP综合用水量  经济规模  海南岛
英文关键词:water resources  available amount of water resources  comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP  economic scale  Hainan Island
基金项目:海南省基础与应用基础研究计划(自然科学领域)高层次人才项目
作者单位邮编
杨波 三亚学院 572022
王文 三亚学院 
秦大军 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 
任丙南 三亚学院 
耿静 三亚学院 
杨秀敏 三亚学院 
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中文摘要:
      从水资源可利用量、万元GDP综合用水量、社会经济发展与水资源承载力之间的相互关系角度来建立水资源承载力分析和预测方法。根据近21年来海南水资源可利用量大小,采用适线法估算了不同保证率下可用于产业发展的水资源可利用量,通过ARIMA模型对海南GDP和人均GDP进行了预测,同时,通过建立的万元GDP综合用水量和GDP的定量关系对海南万元GDP综合用水量进行了预测,最后,通过可用于产业发展的水资源量与万元GDP综合用水量的比值来表达和预测海南水资源可承载的经济规模,采用水资源可承载的经济规模与人均GDP的比值表达海南水资源可承载的人口,从而实现海南水资源承载力的表达和预测。结果表明,在保证率为95%、90%、75%和50%条件下,用于海南全岛产业发展的水资源量分别为59.28亿m3、69.57亿m3、88.86亿m3和113.56亿m3。万元综合用水量和GDP定量关系分析研究表明,二者符合幂函数关系,根据拟合的公式预测得到海南岛万元GDP综合用水量将从2018年的79.74 m3降至2025年的60.12 m3。水资源可承载的经济和人口规模研究结果表明,在水资源可利用量同一保证率下,海南岛可承载经济规模随时间呈现明显上升趋势。在水资源可利用量95%保证率下,2025年可承载经济规模可达到9868.46亿元,较2019年上升29.22%,但可承载人口规模基本维持平稳,约为1400万人。从全年和全岛的平均尺度来看,研究期限内个别年份接近承载饱和状态,其他年份均处于可载状态。
英文摘要:
      The analysis and prediction method of water resources carrying capacity were established from the perspective of the relationship between the available water resources, the comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP, the social and economic development and the water resources carrying capacity. According to the amount of water resources available in Hainan in recent 21 years, the water resources available for industrial development under different guarantee rates was estimated by using the line fitting method, Hainan''s GDP and per capita GDP were forecasted by ARIMA model, and the comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP was discussed by establishing the quantitative relationship between the comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP and GDP, and finally, the ratio of the water resources of industrial development to the comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP was used to express and predict the economic scale of water resources, the ratio of economic scale to per capita GDP was used to express the population that could be carried by water resources, so as to realize the expression and prediction of water resources carrying capacity in Hainan. The results showed that under the conditions of 95%, 90%, 75% and 50% assurance rate, the water resources for industrial development of Hainan Island were 5.928 billion m3, 6.957 billion m3, 8.886 billion m3 and 11.356 billion m3 respectively. The quantitative relationship analysis of the comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP and GDP showed that they were in line with the power function relationship. According to the fitting formula, it was predicted that the comprehensive water consumption per unit GDP in Hainan Island would decrease from 79.74 m3 in 2018 to 60.12 m3 in 2025. The results also showed that the higher the guarantee rate of available water resources was, the smaller the economic and population scale of carrying capacity were. Furth more, under the same guarantee rate of water resources availability, the carried economic scale showed an obvious upward trend, and the economic scale of carrying capacity in 2025 could increase by 29.22% compared with that in 2019, but the carried population size basically remained stable. From the average scale of the whole year and the whole island, except for specific years in the study period, water resources carrying capacity of Hainan Island was under overload state.
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