气象干旱指数在半干旱区适用性分析---以河北省为例
Applicability of meteorological drought indices in Hebei province
投稿时间:2021-02-26  修订日期:2021-02-26
DOI:
中文关键词:  气象干旱  降水距平百分率  相对湿润指数  标准化降水指数  标准化降水蒸散指数
英文关键词:Meteorological drought  Percentage of Precipitation Anomalies  Relative Moisture Index  Standardized Precipitation Index  Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目 (编号:41971031,51779278),广东省自然科学基金 (编号:2016A030310154)
作者单位邮编
米蔚峰 中山大学地理科学与规划学院 510275
邱建秀 中山大学地理科学与规划学院 510275
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中文摘要:
      本研究基于河北省1974~2014年的气象观测和旱情资料,分析降水距平百分率PA、相对湿润指数M、标准化降水指数SPI和标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI这四种常用气象干旱指数在河北省的适用性。通过对比这四种干旱指数与旱情资料和作物产量等农业资料的一致性,结果表明:(1) 对干旱事件分类的总体准确度,M指数最好,PA和SPEI指数监测效果次之。(2) M和PA指数更适用于研究区内时间尺度较长的干旱监测,而SPEI和SPI指数更适用于较短的时间尺度,具体表现在:M和PA指数在生长季尺度与玉米产量的相关性较高,而SPEI和SPI在逐月尺度与玉米产量的相关性较高。(3) 四种干旱指数都能较好地监测河北省历年旱灾发生的空间范围,表现在四种指数的干旱站次比与旱灾受灾比例和旱灾成灾比例都具有较强相关性 (相关系数0.6~0.8,p<0.01)。本研究结论可为半干旱区的气象干旱监测指标选取及农作物估产提供科学参考,为防灾减灾、确保粮食生产安全提供理论依据。
英文摘要:
      Based on meteorological observation and drought record of Hebei Province from 1974 to 2014, this study analyzed the applicability of four commonly used meteorological drought indices, namely PA (Percentage of Precipitation Anomalies), M (Relative Moisture Index), SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) in Hebei Province. By comparing the consistency between drought indices and drought record and agricultural data including crop yield, the results show that: (1) for the overall accuracy of drought event classification, M index outperforms other three indices, followed by PA and SPEI. (2) M and PA indices are more suitable for drought monitoring with longer time scales in the study area, while SPI and SPEI are more suitable for applications on shorter time scales. Specifically, the correlation between growing-season M (and PA) and maize yield was higher compared to those between growing-season SPEI (and SPI) and maize yield, while the correlation between monthly SPEI (and SPI) and maize yield was higher than the other two indices. (3) The four drought indices can consistently detect the spatial range of drought occurrence in Hebei Province, as the fraction of drought-affected meteorological stations (over all stations) shows strong correlation with the fraction of drought-affected cropland area and the fraction of drought-covered cropland area (correlation coefficient 0.6~0.8, p<0.01). The conclusions of this study can provide scientific reference for the selection of meteorological drought monitoring indices and crop yield estimation in semi-arid areas, and provide theoretical basis for disaster prevention and mitigation and further ensure grain production capacity.
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