1971-2016年柘溪水库流域降水特征及旱涝成因分析
Analysis on Precipitation Characteristics and Causes of Drought/ Flood in Zhexi Reservoir Basin during 1971-2016
投稿时间:2020-12-23  修订日期:2020-12-23
DOI:
中文关键词:  流域  降水特征  小波分析  滑动t检验
英文关键词:basin  precipitation characteristics  wavelet analysis  moving t-test
基金项目:
作者单位邮编
郭海峰 湖南省气象服务中心 410118
刘瑞琪 湖南省气象服务中心 410118
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中文摘要:
      利用中国气象局全国综合气象信息共享平台(CIMISS)提供的降水资料以及ERA-Interim再分析资料,通过趋势分析、滑动t检验、小波分析、EOF分解等方法,对1971-2016年柘溪流域降水时空变化特征以及旱涝年降水差异的成因进行了分析。结果表明:柘溪水库流域月平均降水量以4、5、6月为最多;年平均降水量呈现逐渐增加的趋势,其中夏季降水增加较快,而春季降水则呈现出下降的趋势;上世纪90年代初有一个降水增多的突变;柘溪水库流域降水空间分布不均,西北多、东南少,年平均大雨日数也呈现出同样的分布形态。在涝年,西太平洋副高偏西、偏北,东亚大槽偏强,我国南方地区存在异常的西南气流,低纬地区东风系统异常活跃,水汽输送较强。在旱年,情况与之相反。
英文摘要:
      Based on precipitation data from China Integrated Meteorological Information Service System and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, using trend analysis, moving t-test, wavelet analysis and empirical orthogonal function (EOF), precipitation characteristics and causes of drought/ flood in Zhexi reservoir basin during 1971-2016 were analyzed. The results showed that the average monthly precipitation of Zhexi reservoir basin was the most from April to June. The annual average precipitation of Zhexi reservoir basin showed an increasing trend. The summer precipitation increased rapidly, while spring precipitation showed a decreasing trend. There was an abrupt increase of precipitation occurred in the early 90s. The spatial distribution of precipitation in Zhexi reservoir basin was uneven, while more precipitation in Northwest and less in Northeast. The annual average heavy rain days also showed the same distribution pattern. In flood years, the position of western Pacific subtropical high was more westward and northward, and the East Asia major trough was stronger. There was an abnormal southwest airflow in southern China, and abnormal activity of east wind system in low latitude area. Meanwhile, the water vapor transport was stronger. Opposite circulation anomaly was for drought years.
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