极值降水对雄安新区年径流总量控制率的影响研究
Effects of extreme rainfall on volume capture ratios of annual rainfall of Xiongan New Area
投稿时间:2020-12-14  修订日期:2020-12-14
DOI:
中文关键词:  雄安新区  极值降水  年径流总量控制率  GPD  轮廓似然估计
英文关键词:Xiongan New Area  extreme rainfall  volume capture ratios of annual rainfall  GPD  contour likelihood estimation
基金项目:国家科技攻关计划
作者单位邮编
黄薇 中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院中国水利水电科学研究院 221116
鲁帆 中国水利水电科学研究院 100038
孔凡哲 中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院 
朱厚华 水利部水资源管理中心 
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中文摘要:
      径流总量控制是低影响开发雨水系统构建的重要控制目标之一。为研究极值降水对年径流总量控制率的影响,首先对雄安新区雄县、容城、安新三个站点年径流总量控制率对应的设计降雨量进行推求,分析设计降雨量与控制率的关系并对雄安新区雨水径流源头控制效果分区进行验证,再利用GPD分布和轮廓似然法估计3个站点不同重现期的降水值以分析极值降水与年径流总量控制率的关系。结果表明:设计降雨量随着控制率增大而增大且设计雨量增大速度高于控制率的速度,雄安新区雨水径流源头控制效果处于中量低率区,一年里超过设计降雨量的日数在0~10日范围内且2日概率最大,对应一定设计降雨量值每年的控制率会随降水丰枯、极值降水的日数量级的变化而变化,极值降水发生极有可能造成年控制率低于设计值,控制率还受超设计降雨量降水的日数、年降水总量的影响,极值降水虽然发生的日数少但是对排放量的贡献率大,并且随着极值降水重现期增加对控制效果的削弱影响增大。
英文摘要:
      In order to study the effects of extreme rainfall on volume capture ratios of annual rainfall, counting the design rainfall corresponding to volume capture ratios of annual rainfall of Xiongxian , Rongcheng and Anxin stations in Xiongan New Area ,analysing the relationship between the design rainfall and capture ratios, verifying the rainfall runoff source control effect subarea of Xiongan New Area,GPD distribution and contour likelihood estimation were used to estimate the rainfall values of the three stations at different return periods,the relationship between extreme rainfall and total annual runoff control rate is analysed.The results show that the design rainfall increases with the volume capture ratios of annual rainfall and the design rainfall increases faster than the capture ratios,the rainfall runoff source control effect in Xiongan New Area is in the area of medium quantity and low rate,the amount of daily rainfall which excesses design rainfall in one year within 0 ~ 10 and highest probability is 2, corresponding to a certain design rainfall value,volume capture ratios of each year due to the abundance and lack of rainfall, the scale of extreme rainfall events. Extreme precipitation is likely to cause volume capture ratios of that year is lower than the design value and is also influenced by the number of daily rainfall excesses design rainfall and total annual rainfall.Although the amount of extreme rainfall is less the contribution on emission is large, and with the increase of extreme rainfall return period weakening influence on the control effect increasing.
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