关中地区短历时暴雨联合分布研究
STUDY ON THE COMBINED DISTRIBUTION OF SHORT CALENDAR RAINSTORM IN GUANZHONG REGION
投稿时间:2020-10-01  修订日期:2020-10-01
DOI:
中文关键词:  关中地区  Copula函数  联合分布  空间变化
英文关键词:Guanzhong area  Copula function  joint distribution  spatial change
基金项目:
作者单位邮编
黄洋漫 中山大学土木工程学院 519082
陈晓宏 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心 
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中文摘要:
      根据关中地区在1981-2017年的降雨资料,选取10min、30min、60min三个时段,确定边缘分布函数后利用Copula函数构建二维联合分布,运用图形分析法、AIC准则和OLS准则法选出各站拟合最优的Copula函数类型,并绘制相应的联合、同现及条件概率分布图,分析了暴雨概率值和重现期特征。最后分析了关中地区降雨量的空间变化。结果表明:P-Ⅲ分布能较好的描述关中地区各历时降雨量的边缘分布;选用的三种Copula函数均取得了较好的拟合效果,相比较而言Frank Copula函数拟合效果最佳;分析暴雨概率值和重现期可知,在水利工程的规划设计中,根据不利性原则,建议使用联合重现期作为双变量重现期计算标准;研究区降水历时变化与降水量成正比,与单位分钟增幅成反比,在空间上从西南到东北方向逐渐增加。降水量离差系数随着历时增加先变大,后逐渐减小,在空间上从北向南逐渐减小。基于Copula函数对短历时暴雨进行联合分布的研究,有利于城市防洪排涝和山洪灾害的防治,也有利于计算小流域的设计洪水。
英文摘要:
      According to the rainfall data of Guanzhong area from 1981 to 2017, three periods of 10 min, 30 min and 60 min are selected to determine the marginal distribution function, and then the two-dimensional joint distribution is constructed by using Copula function. The optimal Copula function type is selected by using graphic analysis method, AIC criterion and OLS criterion method, and the corresponding joint, co-occurrence and conditi- on probability distribution maps are drawn, and the rainstorm probability values and values are analyzed character- istics of return period. Finally, the spatial variation of rainfall in Guanzhong area is analyzed. The results show that: P-Ⅲ distribution can better describe the marginal distribution of rainfall in Guanzhong area; All the three Copula functions obtained better fitting effect, compared with the best fitting effect of Frank Copula function.;According to the analysis of probability value and recurrence period of rainstorm, it is suggested to use joint recurrence period as the calculation standard of bivariate recurrence period in the planning and design of water conservancy projects according to the principle of disadvantage. The change in the duration of precipitation in the study area is directly proportional to the precipitation, and inversely proportional to the increase in unit minutes, and gradually increases in space from southwest to northeast. The precipitation deviation coefficient increases first and then gradually de- creases with the increase of duration, and then decreases from north to south in space. The study on the joint distri- bution of short duration rainstorm based on Copula function is beneficial to the prevention and control of urban flood control and drainage and mountain flood, as well as the calculation of design flood in small watershed.
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