河南省水生态足迹测度及其驱动效应分析
Measurement of Water Ecological footprint and its driving effect in Henan Province
投稿时间:2018-12-19  修订日期:2018-12-19
DOI:
中文关键词:  关键词:水生态足迹  扩展的Kaya恒等式  LMDI分解法  驱动效应  河南省
英文关键词:Keywords: water ecological footprint  extended Kaya identity  LMDI decomposition method  driving effects  Henan Province.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41501136),河南省高等学校重点科研项目(19A170001),河南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201810479014),安阳师范学院大学生创新基金项目(ASCX/2018-120),安阳师范学院科研培育基金项目(AYNUKP-2017-B18)
作者单位E-mail
焦士兴 安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院 87852269@qq.com 
王安周 洛阳市第十九中学  
陈林芳 安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院  
张崇崇 安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院  
尹义星 南京信息工程大学水文气象学院  
张馨歆 安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院  
赵荣钦 华北水利水电学院资源与环境学院  
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中文摘要:
      摘要:运用水生态足迹模型分析了河南省水生态足迹动态变化,结合拓展的Kaya恒等式和LMDI分解法,分析了河南省水生态足迹的驱动效应。结果表明:(1)河南省水生态足迹由2011年的2.954×108hm2持续减少到2016年的1.461×108hm2,第一、第二和第三产业的年均值约占总量的45%、11%和44%,且第一产业所占比重基本稳定,第二产业呈下降趋势,第三产业有所上升。(2)人口和经济发展是河南省水生态足迹的正向驱动因素,人口驱动效应相对恒定且不断增强,经济发展是主要的增量因子且驱动效应逐渐减弱。(3)以2014年为分界点,河南省产业结构对于水生态足迹驱动效应实现了由正向向负向的转变,但受转变时间和产业比重变化的影响,尽管整体上呈弱正向驱动但接近于零。(4)技术进步是河南省水生态足迹减少的首要驱动因素,三大产业技术进步驱动效应的年均值均呈负向驱动,表明技术进步有效抑制了水生态足迹增长,其中第三产业技术进步的减量效应最高。
英文摘要:
      Abstract: The dynamic changes of water ecological footprint in Henan Province are analyzed by using the water ecological footprint model, and the driving effects of the water ecological footprint in Henan Province was analyzed by combining the extended Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition method. The results are as follows: (1) The water ecological footprint of Henan Province has been continuously reduced from 2.954 × 108hm2 in 2011 to 1.461 × 108 hm2 in 2016.Primary, secondary and tertiary industries account for 45%、11% and 44% of the total , and the proportion of the primary industry is basically stable. The secondary industry and the proportion of the primary industry is basically stable. (2)Population and economic development is the positive driving factor of the water ecological footprint of Henan Province, the population driving effect is relatively constant and increasing, the economic development is the main incremental factor and the driving effect is gradually weakened. (3) Take 2014 as the boundary point, the industrial structure has realized the change from positive to negative driving effect for the water ecological footprint driving effect in Henan Province, but it is affected by the change of transition time and industrial proportion. Although the whole is weakly positive drive, it is close to zero. (4) Technological progress is the main driving factor for the reduction of water ecological footprint in Henan Province, the annual mean value of the driving effect of technological progress in three industries is negative, it shows that technological progress has effectively restrained the ecological footprint of water, in which the tertiary industry technological progress in the reduction effect is the highest.
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