基于IPTA的黄河流域天然月径流趋势分析
Natural Runoff Trend Analysis of Yellow River Basin Based on IPTA
投稿时间:2020-08-19  修订日期:2020-08-19
DOI:
中文关键词:  气候变化  黄河流域  天然径流  趋势分析  IPTA
英文关键词:Climate change  Yellow River Basin  natural runoff  trend analysis  IPTA
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0404605);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51709178)
作者单位邮编
可灏 河海大学 水文水资源学院 210098
贾本有 南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室 210029
王文卓 河海大学 水文水资源学院 
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中文摘要:
      近年有研究提出了一种新的趋势分析方法:创新多边形趋势分析法(Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis,IPTA),该方法不受传统趋势分析方法中严格假设的限制,并能够比较不同时段的时间序列,具有简便、可视化的显著特点,已在国外得到应用。本文引入IPTA方法,对黄河流域天然月径流量进行了趋势分析。结果表明,在黄河流域上游地区,8至10月份的天然径流量呈减小趋势,11、12月份及次年1至4月份的天然径流量总体稳定;在黄河流域中下游地区,2至6月份的天然径流量总体呈微弱增加趋势,8月份到次年的1月份天然径流量总体呈减小趋势。研究发现黄河流域天然月径流量变化趋势的过渡、相邻月份径流量变化最大值和最大幅度和季节的过渡有一定联系,同时验证了IPTA方法的简便性和有效性。
英文摘要:
      Recently, a new hydrological time series analysis method: Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA), which is not restricted by the strict assumptions in conventional trend analysis methods and also can compare different time periods, has been applied abroad. Natural monthly runoff time series data of 10 hydrological stations from uptream to downstream in Yellow River are restored, the IPTA method introduced for trend analysis of the natural monthly runoff time series. Results show that the natural runoff in upstream area of Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from August to October, and the runoff of the following year was generally stable from November to December and from January to April. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin, showed a slight increase trend from February to June, while a generally decreasing trend from August to January of the following year. The transition of natural monthly runoff change trend in the Yellow River Basin, the maximum and the maximum amplitude of the runoff change in adjacent months are related to the seasonal transition, and the simplicity and effectiveness of the IPTA method are verified.
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